latest news from Tatton Investment Management: Pluses and minuses

17 May 2024, 05:00pm

It was a decent week for investors, with global stocks up around 1% from last Friday. British and European equities finished virtually flat, with the US and China slightly up. The gain for US stocks was not outsized, but it was enough to take the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high on Wednesday. Breaking that record made a fairly average week for markets look like a great one.

US stocks were able to break fresh ground because of encouraging inflation numbers published on Wednesday. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 3.4% increase on the year before, exactly in line with economists’ expectations. Not particularly outstanding, one might think, compared to the EU and UK, which are fast heading down towards 2%. But it meant slower inflation than the month before for the first time this year, and the first time this year that US inflation did not exceed forecasts. With the inflation outlook finally improving, investors piled into US stocks in the aftermath, sending the S&P 1.2% higher on the day. Markets have become so used to the US economy beating expectations that it feels like an achievement when things are as predicted. 

Tamer inflation numbers increase the likelihood of an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve, which would support relative equity valuations and offer relief to borrowers struggling under the weight of the increased interest burden. Markets have been excited about the monetary policy pivot since late last year, but continued strength in the world’s largest economy has repeatedly pushed back the timeline for cuts. Four months of higher than forecast inflation – together with a still-tight labour market – have led some to question whether cuts are coming at all. Disinflation signals are therefore crucial support for market sentiment right now.

Still, when we look at the detail, we cannot get too excited about US inflation. While CPI was in line with expectations, producer prices beat the forecast once again. This shows that companies still have pricing power, and that usually indicates higher consumer prices down the line. This matches up with the other signals too: consumer demand has been handsomely strong even as the labour market loosens, and recent corporate earnings show that companies are still very profitable and expect to improve their earnings further. 

These mixed signals present a conundrum. For most of the year, markets were propelled by rate cut expectations – which were themselves predicated on falling inflation – while growth or at least growth expectations maintained a healthy upward pace. Persistent inflation on the back of that growth dashed some of those hopes and led to the first real bout of volatility last month, as growth finally slowed somewhat even though broader growth data showed there is still plenty to get excited about. Moreover, the Fed keeps hinting that cuts will come despite inflation still comfortably above the official 2% target.

There is a growing feeling that the vibrant US economy simply has more inherent inflation pressures than before the pandemic – but without this necessarily affecting economic stability or investment. It currently comes with higher growth and stronger corporate earnings, which could just result in price stability at a higher level, rather than instability. If so, it is debatable whether the central bank’s official 2% inflation target is still appropriate. We discuss this issue in a separate article.

By contrast, rate cuts look a sure thing in Europe and the UK. Inflation has come down significantly this side of the Atlantic, and this is ultimately related to weaker growth prospects. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) both have greater room to cut rates and more of a need to, with support required as economies come out of last year’s technical recession. 

While rate cuts seem certain, how deep or fast those cuts will be is still an open question. On Friday, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned that back-to-back cuts are unlikely. Most people think the ECB will slash rates at its meeting next month, but Schnabel thinks “a rate cut in July does not seem warranted”. Policy is likely to loosen, but Europe still has its own inflation pressures and we are not about to enter a full blown easing cycle.

The UK is in a similar situation. Implied market expectations suggest the BoE will deliver a first cut in August, and these expectations are aiding what is currently a strong period for UK equities. This is encouraging, and hopefully it marks an end to years of underperformance for British stocks, even if European and US stock markets still have the upper hand for the period since the year started (appr.8% UK, 10% EU and 12% US). UK based investors should bear in mind that short term movements in the FTSE 100 will not be exactly mirrored in portfolio values, which are based on globally diversified investments. That might seem like a bad thing when the FTSE 100 does well, but the long-term picture clearly favours globally diversified portfolios. 

Interestingly, UK stocks used to be considered a pretty adequate proxy for global stock performance – thanks to the FTSE 100 being dominated by large multinationals. In recent years, though, the FTSE 100 has become overwhelmingly focused on a limited number of sectors, like energy, consumer staples and banks. Again, that is good when those sectors do well, but it means the UK stock market is more disconnected now from UK and global growth trends and therefore no longer constitutes an adequate yardstick for equity returns in general.

Speaking of global growth, one of the most prominent stories this week was the US imposition of another bout of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels. Compared to the tariffs introduced under the Trump administration, this is likely to have only a small effect on the Chinese and US economies, given the much smaller volume of affected trade, but trade hostilities between the two are likely to continue as we head toward the US election. Trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has already knocked China from top spot on the list of US trading partners (which is now Mexico).

Encouragingly, EU policymakers are trying to stay out of the spat, even though the US move is likely to put even more Chinese downward price pressures on European manufacturers, given the overcapacities in EV’s and solar panels that state subsidies and lack of domestic demand have created in China. This is perhaps why Beijing is promising more support for its ailing domestic economy and consumers. This should be a positive for broader global, rather than just US growth, and given Europe’s larger export orientation, this would benefit Europe more than the US. However, the deterioration of US-China ties makes things difficult to project with confidence. In this environment, it is hard to get even more optimistic about the world economy and corporate earnings growth than what is already reflected in asset prices. Markets’ fairly middling week, with the US markets taking the lead again, probably reflects that. Investors will at least be pleased that, after the April setbacks, portfolio values are touching new all-time highs.
 

News Archive

7 June 2024, 05:00pm

Latest news from Tatton Investment Management: ECB’s Lagard makes rate cut history

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27 October 2023, 05:00pm

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7 July 2023, 05:00pm

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16 June 2023, 05:00pm

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Latest News from Tatton Investment Management: Immaculate disinflation sentiment cheers investors

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21 April 2023, 05:00pm

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10 June 2022, 12:00am

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22 April 2022, 12:00am

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23 July 2021, 12:00am

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16 July 2021, 12:00am

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12 July 2021, 12:00am

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25 June 2021, 12:00am

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18 June 2021, 12:00am

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11 June 2021, 12:00am

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4 June 2021, 12:00am

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28 May 2021, 12:00am

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21 May 2021, 12:00am

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14 May 2021, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market vertigo galore

10 May 2021, 12:00am

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30 April 2021, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Doubling of earnings leaves markets cold

26 April 2021, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Doubling of earnings leaves markets cold

23 April 2021, 12:00am

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19 April 2021, 12:00am

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9 April 2021, 12:00am

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1 April 2021, 12:00am

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26 March 2021, 12:00am

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19 March 2021, 12:00am

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12 March 2021, 12:00am

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5 March 2021, 12:00am

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26 February 2021, 12:00am

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25 January 2021, 12:00am

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15 January 2021, 12:00am

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6 November 2020, 12:00am

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4 November 2020, 12:00am

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2 November 2020, 12:00am

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24 August 2020, 12:00am

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26 May 2020, 12:00am

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22 May 2020, 12:00am

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11 May 2020, 12:00am

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4 May 2020, 12:00am

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27 April 2020, 12:00am

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20 April 2020, 12:00am

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13 April 2020, 12:00am

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6 April 2020, 12:00am

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30 March 2020, 12:00am

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24 March 2020, 12:00am

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23 March 2020, 12:00am

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19 March 2020, 12:00am

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18 March 2020, 12:00am

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17 March 2020, 12:00am

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16 March 2020, 12:00am

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13 March 2020, 12:00am

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12 March 2020, 12:00am

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9 March 2020, 12:00am

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6 March 2020, 12:00am

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2 March 2020, 12:00am

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28 February 2020, 12:00am

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26 February 2020, 12:00am

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24 February 2020, 12:00am

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17 February 2020, 12:00am

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10 February 2020, 12:00am

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3 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020, 12:00am

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020, 12:00am

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?