latest news from Tatton Investment Management: Inflation, a common side effect of growth

26 April 2024, 05:00pm

Intraday equity market volatility is back, as this roller coaster week showed. Still, we yet again seem to be ending flattish after a busy end to the week. 

UK markets were strong, helped by the bid for Anglo-American from BHP. Anglo American’s share price rose to match the premium offered by BHP. Meanwhile, China is also managing to rise and, in Sterling-based terms, is now 15% above the lows of late January. The Hang Seng is even perkier, up 20%. The Japanese stock market has had a less happy time of late, falling over 7% from its peak on 22nd March, although it has still risen 1.5% since late January.

Part of this has been the different performance in their respective currencies. China’s renminbi remains only slightly weak but the yen has moved to the lows of 1990. This week, the Bank of Japan made no change to policy, ignoring the calls for some sort of intervention to halt the yen’s fall. The US dollar rose slightly against most currencies as well.

This week was much calmer in geopolitical terms, fewer high-profile tensions between Iran and Israel, especially after the passing of the Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan aid package by US congress. That helped risk assets to find buyers and equity markets generally stabilised. However, the concerns are still strong, now mostly centred around rising bond yields. 

The US 10-year treasury bond yield, regarded as the global bond yield yardstick, had moved down below 4.6% briefly but ends the week a little higher at 4.65%. Other bond markets have also seen rises, partly spurred by weaker currencies but also by fears about global inflation.

The week’s main economic event was in the US, with the release of the GDP data for the first quarter. According to the preliminary data, US overall real growth has slowed to an annualised rate of +1.6% for the quarter, undershooting economist expectations of above 2%.

The headline real growth number rather disguises the important point that US consumers and businesses have continued to increase their spending at a fair tack. Domestic final demand was buoyant and remains above a +3% annualised rate. 

Instead of producing the goods for sale, some of the sales were filled out of inventories. Also, for the first time in two years, the US economy imported more from the rest of the world than it earned in exports. When final sales (driven by consumption) are strong, it usually drags in more imports than exports, but this had not been the case for two years. As the chart from JP Morgan Research shows below, net exports have been a positive, even when final sales growth moved into a very positive state. Now, it has moved into a more normal position but this only underlines the strength and health of final demand.

                   
This means, however, that US consumption is strong enough to create a problem for the US central bank, the Fed. Inflation in the US has stopped falling, as evidenced by today’s (Friday 26th) release of the personal income and spending data. Core prices in this measure were the same as last month on a year-on-year basis. The inflation measure known as the core personal consumption expenditure deflator is +2.8% year-on-year (one of the key inflation measures the Fed considers) but this represents a rate well above 4% over the past three months, heading back into deeply uncomfortable territory for the Fed, and way above their 2% target (see chart below).

        

This also presents a problem for the rest of the world. JP Morgan Research reported on their aggregation of the March CPI data across the world, saying that the annualised three-month growth rate for global headline inflation and core inflation picked up to 3.7%.

This is the third consecutive firm monthly gain, with continued strength in services prices (+0.45%m/m). But there was some good news as well, with core goods prices showing a small decline. 

However, the fact that prices have started move back up faster, even where growth has been less strong, creates difficulties for the recently dovish central banks such as the ECB and the Bank of England. The ECB is likely to stick to the plan of cutting rates in just over two months’ time, but the  members are making hawkish noises much like those on the Federal Open Markets Committee. The implication is that there will be a move in June, but then a delay before the next one. 

This would make the global rate cutting cycle very different to others. Usually rates move quite swiftly downwards, typically about 2-3% over the year before bottoming. At the moment, the extent of cuts is expected to be about 1% for a full year in Europe. In the US, rates are expected to go no lower than 4.5%, less than 1% from today’s levels.

Still, the major central banks have not returned to actively trying to discourage growth by raising rates (apart from the BoJ, and even they are being dovish). We have not got to the point where any policy maker is openly talking of raising rates. For that, we would need to see signs of rising prices coming through the supply chains. 

The bid by mining giant BHP for Anglo-American is related to that inflation story. Copper prices have been moving up very sharply and we write below on the story. One aspect behind the rise is to do with AI. Artificial intelligence has been a market theme since ChatGPT burst into the mainstream nearly 18 months ago and has spurred huge gains in stocks associated with it. 

This week, we saw Microsoft and Google (aka Alphabet, although almost everybody has given up calling them by that name) bring good profit news, ostensibly because of AI impacts. Google also announced a $70bn share buyback program (we write about the spread of those programs as well, below). However, Meta (Facebook) took a share price hit because of its ambitious AI-related investment plans. They are likely to be hugely expensive.

Mark Zuckerberg spoke in an interview saying the costs are high because of supply chain bottlenecks. The issue is not chips, as those supply chains are largely sorted out. He was talking about building power plants to supply a gigawatt. That’s about the size of an average US nuclear power plant or 5 gas-powered plants. The amount of electric transport (copper) cabling is mind-boggling.

Still, pricing power is always good news for some stocks, such as Anglo American. And rate risks to markets are being offset by continued positivity coming from the US earnings season, which is in full flood, with few nasty surprises so far. The next big thing comes next week, with the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting on Wednesday. There’s a miniscule chance of rate moves, or at least some more guidance on when to expect them and under what circumstances, so all ears will be on Jerome Powell’s press conference. The rest of us can brace for another volatile week in markets.

Strangely, many of the conditions now causing volatility were present in the first quarter. Back then, yields were rising and markets were expecting a global inflation rebound, but investors took it in their stride. Now that inflation has actually returned, markets realise they might have been overexcited, and price rises might be more serious and long-lasting than assumed. This means growth expectations will take longer to turn into actual profits, while the other headwinds that existed before are still annoyingly persistent (Geopolitics, financial pressures from elevated rates and yields, China’s demand deterioration).

That being said, the medium-term case for global growth getting back on track – the ‘back to mid-cycle’ outlook we wrote about before – is still unscathed. Constructive corporate earnings reports now being released show as much.

It may just be that markets got a little bit ahead of themselves – as they do – and are now experiencing a consolidation phase. It might look bad now, but it should recalibrate expectations to more realistic timeframes. Keep calm and carry on.

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New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear

24 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'

17 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine

10 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?

3 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020, 12:00am

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020, 12:00am

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?