News from Tatton Investment Management: Plan B or not Plan B? That is the question

10 December 2021, 12:00am

Equity markets bounced strongly on Tuesday. The catalyst was a flip in the coronavirus narrative that went: “the new variant is as contagious as the very first, but much less damaging. It confers some immunity. Triple-boosted vaccines work well on it, at the same efficacy as on the other variants. Greater contagion will not overwhelm systems, but will help the world live with the disease.”

This viewpoint held sway for a few hours. However, on Wednesday, Boris Johnson announced Plan B. The government can’t take the risk that a spike in COVID cases leads to a very bad health outcome for many, particularly with the National Health Service stretched because of the festive season. In the government’s defence, we are still awaiting scientific conclusions of the risks caused by the Omicron variant, and arguably the outcome will have to come from real world data, meaning observing the consequences of the spreading virus. One may also argue that some of the preventative measures bring the UK more in line with measures adopted in other countries, even if this does not guarantee those measures are the right ones. 

In this respect, the thinking seems to be: “we’ve done it before, so we can do it again”. However, we can detect a difference: restrictions over the past two years have been accompanied by support for those directly damaged by the imposition. There was no such help announced this time.

When risk assessment is narrowed to one potentially bad outcome, avoidance of that outcome dominates the policy. The complexity of risk in other areas is underplayed. The City of London is a good example of the changes in behaviour. Professor Jesse Matheson, a University of Sheffield economist, has been working on the big shifts in social geography wrought by working from home. He leads a study conducted before this week’s announcement and shortly to be published. With commuters spending an extra day working from home instead of in the office: “City centres stand to lose £3 billion in 2022. This decrease will be concentrated in a few very dense centres; for example, the City of London will experience a spending decrease of 31.6%, and central Birmingham will experience a decrease of 8%. Some of this spending will be realised in the residential areas where these workers live, but some may be lost altogether."

For bars, pubs and restaurants, it’s been a reasonable start to the festive season, with footfall down  30% from 2019 levels, according to a couple of City of London bars informally polled this week. Evenings are better than lunch. Some of that is a long trend. Younger workers appear to be starting their ‘commute’ around 4pm rather than 7am,  and they’re not going to the office. That might help the bars hold up, less so daytime coffeeshops. 

However, the longer the health risks posed by city life persist, the more apparent will become a crucial variable in economic activity: rents. Landlords have huge vacancy rates now and there’s almost no opportunist prepared to bet on a return of the office worker. Unfortunately, because landlords are always reluctant to lose the revenue and are not happy to agree lower ongoing rents for current tenants, the market won’t clear quickly, with downside risks lingering. At the onset of the COVID crisis, we (along with many others) mulled over the structural shifts the virus may accelerate. Relaunching IT investment (which has already occurred in many economies) was one of them, but now we are accustomed to  altering working practices and therefore cityscapes. Indeed, we can observe a current pattern of the 9-5 office becoming less relevant.

Transition phases tend to create winners and losers. Currently, the losers appear to be getting little support. However, it will be crucial that the transitional process is managed by public authorities, not just by an ad-hoc reaction to (by nature) random virus mutations.  

Further afield, China had altogether different concerns this week. As the country still runs a zero-COVID policy, Omicron has had very little impact. Consequently, attention is fixed on the domestic economy and the woes of its property sector. More news of the winding down of floundering property giant Evergrande was counterbalanced by authorities signalling supporting for the rest of the economy. Needless to say, this backing is incredibly important to stem contagion into other sectors, even if it is likely that more fiscal support will be needed.

Evergrande missed a US dollar-denominated interest payment, while the shares of smaller rival Kaisa Group Holdings were suspended after it failed to meet its deadline for a USD loan repayment. At the same time, the media reported Evergrande restructuring plans were taking shape. Offshore debt and bonds are all set to be included in the restructuring, although questions persist over the treatment of domestic liabilities. It remains to be seen whether domestic bondholders receive their payments, and what will happen for many thousands of people who put down payments on yet-to-be-deposit creditors. On the face of it, the restructuring of a company in default sounds like bad news. However, markets have had low expectations for a good outcome for Evergrande for a long time – at some point, the unavoidable - a restructuring process – had to occur. It could be, however, that the pain is borne more by overseas bond investors. For the wider market, most investors will be content if there is no further contagion to healthy companies in the sector, or to the economy as a whole.

In that respect, it’s comforting that Chinese USD high yield bond spreads fell back over the week, rather than rewidening beyond previous levels. Importantly, there is a political acknowledgement that support may have to be forthcoming. The People’s Bank of China lowered its reserves requirements for banks, freeing up an estimated CNY 1.2 trillion (USD 188 billion) of cash which is now available for loans. The tone of the Politburo has also turned more accommodative for economic support next year. Quite often, once an ‘orderly’ restructuring process starts, the low point in markets has been reached, even if economic consequences persist. 

In the US, the Federal Open Markets Committee meets next Wednesday, 15 December. Virtually everyone (including us) assumes bond purchases will be tapered more rapidly than the schedule announced in November. The end date for new purchases will most likely be in March. This then brings the expectation for short-term interest rates to then be raised. Steven Blitz of TS Lombard tells us that the market may well expect a rise from 0% to 1% by the end of 2022 (currently the expectation is for a rise to 0.5%).

The US Treasury will be the major borrower in the coming months, having put its schedule on hold as it waited for the cessation of ‘debt ceiling’ arguments from both sides of the US Senate. On Thursday, the Senate voted to allow Congress to raise the debt ceiling with a simple majority vote, ensuring government employees will not face being laid off over the holidays.

There’s been much talk about what level of Fed rates is the right equilibrium rate for the US economy. Currently the market thinks it is about 2%, but a number of commentators have warned that it could (or should) be higher. We think they could be missing something. The inflation-linked bond market gives us a view of where real short-term rates will be in the long-term. For over a year, the real short-term rate has been priced between -0.1% and +0.5%, and at 0% for the past three months. During all the talk of tapering, it has hardly moved. 

The Fed’s goal is to achieve full employment with stable inflation. It has stopped believing it knows precisely what either level is, but it now thinks it undershot both measures in the past. During this time, investors who took absolutely no risk still made money. We think the Fed now believes that those investors should probably not lose out, but neither should they benefit. A 0% real rate over the long-term would do that. This means the terminal nominal rate will be wherever the inflation rate settles. Therefore, in about five years’ time, we should expect short rates to be between 2% and 2.5%. They may not get there much earlier.




 

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New article from Tatton Investment Management: Optimistic markets despite second wave lockdown threa

26 May 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Just as the sun comes out, clouds appear in the East

22 May 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management

18 May 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Us-China cold war: Threat or blessing?

11 May 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Most welcome, if feeble, signs of pulling together

4 May 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Opening-up will be slower than locking down

27 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V or U-shaped recovery scenarios - the jury is out

20 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Lifting lockdown remains a delicate balancing act

20 April 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets between hope and despair

15 April 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Is now the time to invest?

13 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide

6 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?

30 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one

24 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do

23 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession

19 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets

18 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?

17 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble

16 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term

13 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar

12 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions

9 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn

6 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey

2 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home

28 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective

26 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear

24 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'

17 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine

10 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?

3 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020, 12:00am

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020, 12:00am

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?