New article from Tatton Investment Management:Transition uncertainties

2 July 2021

The great British summer may have struggled to materialise so far, but the end of the first half of the year always brings an element of sunny optimism. We will comment on market and investment returns in more detail next week, when the data has settled, but after what proved a quite decent 2020 for investors, the first half of 2021 has again left investors with plenty to be positive about. However, investors with a higher allocation to equities than bonds will have done much better than last year. Regular readers will know bond markets have been a decisive factor for stock markets this year and while compared to the first quarter of 2021 they have calmed down in the second quarter they remain a risk to lofty equity valuation levels.

On the back of calmer bond markets – and a significant rebound of the global economy – the second quarter saw many equity markets close at all-time highs. Meanwhile, despite a notable recovery rally in the second quarter, bond investors have not had it quite so good. This poses an important question against historical observations. Can equities continue their rise despite a lack of upside for bonds?

The timescale of the chart below may distort things, however, the return boost that the relentless decline in bond yields provided bond holders over the past 40 years has meant that over this period stock market returns did not come at the expense of bond markets. The 1950s and 60s looked very different. Then, yields continually rose and drove down bond valuations while equities grew strongly. So perhaps we should pose the question differently: can the 2020s be like the 1950s and 60s?



It is certainly possible, but some of us may also remember the 1970s when out of hand inflation drove bond yields up at a much higher rate than before and stock markets suffered prolonged falls.

For the rest of this year, returns are more likely to be driven by the more immediate factor of the post-pandemic economic growth levels. On this point, last week’s record highs in economic sentiment survey data from around the western world confirmed that equity analysts have not been mistaken to expect exceptionally high 2021 corporate profit growth rates – which are underpinning stock market valuations (see also this week’s article ‘Global half-time review).  At the same time, concerns have subsided for now that runaway levels of inflation are poised to push up bond yields and put equity valuations under pressure through rising discount factors for future earnings.

As we have noted over the past month, this environment of stock market positivity was driven by the expectation that the pandemic and its restrictions is gradually ebbing away, opening the path for an outsized economic catch-up rebound all the while central banks keep bond yields stable. However, the ebbing away of the pandemic also means the inevitable phasing out of the government and central bank support that bridged the past year’s economic void. This introduces a significant – and potentially unnerving – period of transition when the economy will have to stand on its own feet again.

Markets have already priced in much of the good to come from the pandemic really being behind us – at least in the west – and there may not be much patience if things do not improve in a straight upward line.

To be clear, it is our central case that the peak of the pandemic is now well behind us, and economic growth lies ahead, but we also expect to see bumps and humps on the way. For one, it has to be recognised that only the UK’s public health has so far successfully weathered the onslaught of a far more infectious variant against a widely vaccinated population, while the rest of the world is still where the UK was only six weeks ago – reopening as the rate of infection has declined to very low numbers. It is entirely possible that the rest take their insights from the benign impact on the public health this latest COVID wave has had on the UK, but it is just as conceivable that once infections there rise again, those in charge of public health react with renewed stringent restrictions out of fear that their lower vaccination rates make the UK experience unapplicable.

This is just one example of the uncertainties that lie ahead as we transition to the post-pandemic environment, and it will make it very difficult for politicians and central bankers to calibrate the pace of withdrawing support. All the while, capital markets will fret over whether the remaining support level are too much – stoking inflation and yields – or too little, undermining the economic outlook and corporate earnings.

Our relatively positive outlook is anchored on two things. First, even as variant scares temporarily slow progress, vaccines have forced the pandemic to retreat. As a consequence, the strong economic bounce back is set to continue, even if there may be the odd setback in the process. Second, central banks are determined to avoid letting inflation pressures (that come with a strong rebound of demand against a not yet fully operational supply side) deter them on their path back to sustained economic growth. This should mean corporate earnings continue to grow as strongly as currently expected, supporting markets, while yield levels should remain contained – thereby not undermining equity valuation levels either.

But to quote ex-US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who passed away at 88 this week, there are “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” to be mindful of.  Just as in his assessment of terrorist threats back in 2002, we can only take into account the known unknowns and steer our investment management actions accordingly. The potential blows of the unknown unknowns are the risks investors have to mitigate through their personal investment risk profiles and resultant asset allocations – as the first quarter of 2020 so starkly reminded us.
 

News Archive

30 July 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull as markets go through the motions

23 July 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets wake up to living with the virus

16 July 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Earnings vs Delta

12 July 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Don't look down

2 July 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Transition uncertainties

25 June 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Moderating expectations

18 June 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investors try to make sense of the Feds 'dot-plot'

11 June 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hazy as Carbis Bay

4 June 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Going up sideways

28 May 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Touch of Goldilocks at the end of May

21 May 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market resilience in face of Bitcoin crash

14 May 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market vertigo galore

10 May 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sell in May and go away?

30 April 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Doubling of earnings leaves markets cold

23 April 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 'Risk on' pauses while the real world keeps accelerat

19 April 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: New bond news gives green light for equity investors

9 April 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets signal economic optimism

1 April 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The first quarter of 2021 was no April fool

26 March 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The world is moving on from the pandemic

19 March 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tug of war - bonds vs. equities

12 March 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recalibrations

5 March 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets find they cannot have it both ways

26 February 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Earnings look set to stabilise wobbling markets

19 February 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: One year on - who would have thought

12 February 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No UK double dip, but much talk of bubbles

5 February 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Calming of nerves

1 February 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A fraying of nerves

25 January 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A sigh of relief

15 January 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fiscal turbo replaces lame duck Trump

8 January 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End points and new beginnings

18 December 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye to all that

14 December 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Outlook 2021 - no deal Brexit?

4 December 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: December concerns over baubles and bubbles

27 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fiscal floundering

20 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More tunnel before the light

18 November 2020

Interim Results For The Six Month Period Ended 30 September 2020

13 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change is in the air

6 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking beyond the obvious

4 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US Election Update

2 November 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: US election, the response to the pandemic and Brexit

30 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unsettled week ahead - or behind

26 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sunlit uplands or COVID gorge?

19 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Watching and waiting

12 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Baffling market optimism

2 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A question of time horizons

25 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A recovery on hold

18 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Taking a step back to look forward

14 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Frictions and contradictions

7 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market dynamic of a K-shaped recovery

1 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Big tech gets bigger while the Fed takes the easy opt

24 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fed leaves bond investors with that sinking feeling

17 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID II the sequel - as scary as the original?

10 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: July brings consolidation

2 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sunshine and shadows

27 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: PPE = Politics, Pressure and Economics

20 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Discomfort of disappearing safety nets

13 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fast and freewheeling

3 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: H1 2020 offers meaningful lessons

29 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Support balances increasing strains - for how long?

22 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Equity valuations follow bond valuations' lead

15 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets suffer altitude sickness

8 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are enjoying an uncomfortably benign pandemic

1 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Optimistic markets despite second wave lockdown threa

26 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Just as the sun comes out, clouds appear in the East

22 May 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management

18 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Us-China cold war: Threat or blessing?

11 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Most welcome, if feeble, signs of pulling together

4 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Opening-up will be slower than locking down

27 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V or U-shaped recovery scenarios - the jury is out

20 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Lifting lockdown remains a delicate balancing act

20 April 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets between hope and despair

15 April 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Is now the time to invest?

13 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide

6 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?

30 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one

24 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do

23 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession

19 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets

18 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?

17 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble

16 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term

13 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar

12 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions

9 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn

6 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey

2 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home

28 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective

26 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear

24 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'

17 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine

10 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?

3 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019

Trading Statement

17 October 2019

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?