New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

1 April 2019

The vexed date has come and gone, as we had suggested, but not quite in the manner we had expected. While the population widely blames Parliament and the political class in general for the Brexit execution debacle, MPs are just as divided as the entire nation over the UK’s 2016 decision to quit the European Union. The consequence is that as the number of possible options for an orderly exitrapidly reduces day by day, as the ‘overtime’ required to solve the impasse through an extension has increased substantially over the course of the week.

This is frustrating and costly for all who were expecting the return of some level of planning certainty, particularly the business community. But it probably reflects fairly on what is at stake for the nation and how passionate so many people feel about it.

Observing the news media coverage across Continental Europe and the US and comparing to that in the UK, it is striking that the British press appears to expect a softer Brexit by the day. Whereas, the foreign press (and politicians for that matter) interpret British politicians’ indecisiveness and running down of the clock as a sure sign of a no-deal outcome becoming ever more probable.

At Tatton, we would side with the UK press and continue to find support for this view in the reaction and state of financial markets. Risk asset markets around the world – including the UK – closed the week higher and even the value of £-Sterling hardly budged following the third and probably final defeat of the government’s withdrawal treaty by Parliament. The market’s quarter end marker was non-postponeable beyond 29 Mar 2019 and the results tally delivered a remarkable reversal of the last quarter of 2018. Stock markets around the world posted healthy gains of up to 10% and thereby very nearly recovered the previous quarter’s losses. With bonds having rallied as well, corporate debtors are feeling relieved, after rising costs of debt caused pressure last year.

Remarkably, the financial analyst community seems similarly divided over whether the falling bond yields are a positive or negative signal for the 2019 development path of the global economy - as the UK is over its Brexit path. Many economists see it as a credit stimulus for the economy and expect a re-acceleration after the recent global slowdown. On the other hand, many investment strategists interpret it as the bond markets (once again) calling the end of this drawn-out economic cycle.

Unfortunately, at this point the jury is out. Much will hinge on sentiment swings of consumers and businesses. In China sentiment remains on an upswing, as we point out and comment on in a separate article this week. Europe is at the other end of the spectrum, as it still suffers from 2018’s decline in global trade and recent Brexit angst. The US is somewhere in between, with declining sentiment readings from very elevated levels as last year’s fiscal sugar rush is waning, and the prolonged government shut down and unresolved trade war with China have begun to take their toll.

In our assessment, the current juncture has many similarities with the aftermath of the previous market corrections that followed temporary economic slowdowns in 2013 and 2015/2016. In both instances, the easing of credit market tensions together with fiscal counter measures by China proved sufficient to stabilise the global economy and put it back on the growth path.

It seems likely that the same will happen again over the coming quarters, perhaps further helped by a no longer strengthening US$. However, history only rhymes but rarely repeats and so there are risks and opportunities in our central case. The political outcomes of Trump’s trade war and Brexit are one set of crucial variables; central bank policy and an orderly credit market are the other.

As noted, we are more optimistic than pessimistic about the political side. It seems likely that positive political outcomes will cause a catch-up in demand, which should make up for the damage that has already been done. On the credit market side, we have to concede that vulnerabilities to the world economy from the next credit default cycle are much larger than they have been historically. This is a consequence of the much higher levels of debt, rather than equity finance volumes that the past decade of ultra-low interest rates has led to. Central banks were and are aware that their extraordinary monetary measures would cause this negative side effect. That is why central bank policy has been so much more reactive to moves in credit markets than would otherwise be the case.

Unfortunately, the over-selling in markets last year shows they are scared of the size of the credit market and the risks it brings too. This means that while central banks are determined to defuse the credit market risk over time through gradual normalisation of their monetary policy, they will from time to time overshoot their targets as they manoeuvre in uncharted territory – as happened last year. Volatility episodes like the last two quarters are therefore likely to repeat. And with every setback, the time to normalisation extends into the future. This shorter-term cyclicality has the potential to perpetuate the ongoing prolonged cycle much further than previous cycles. However, it is equally possible that a future bout of volatility causes irreparable damage and the ensuing mass corporate defaults lead to a global recession on a par with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

To close on a positive, banks are today far better capitalised as a consequence of the GFC and it is therefore less likely that we will once again be faced with a near collapse of the financial system. 

News Archive

27 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fiscal floundering

20 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More tunnel before the light

18 November 2020

Interim Results For The Six Month Period Ended 30 September 2020

13 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change is in the air

6 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking beyond the obvious

4 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US Election Update

2 November 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: US election, the response to the pandemic and Brexit

30 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unsettled week ahead - or behind

26 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sunlit uplands or COVID gorge?

19 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Watching and waiting

12 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Baffling market optimism

2 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A question of time horizons

25 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A recovery on hold

18 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Taking a step back to look forward

14 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Frictions and contradictions

7 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market dynamic of a K-shaped recovery

1 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Big tech gets bigger while the Fed takes the easy opt

24 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fed leaves bond investors with that sinking feeling

17 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID II the sequel - as scary as the original?

10 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: July brings consolidation

2 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sunshine and shadows

27 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: PPE = Politics, Pressure and Economics

20 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Discomfort of disappearing safety nets

13 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fast and freewheeling

3 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: H1 2020 offers meaningful lessons

29 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Support balances increasing strains - for how long?

22 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Equity valuations follow bond valuations' lead

15 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets suffer altitude sickness

8 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are enjoying an uncomfortably benign pandemic

1 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Optimistic markets despite second wave lockdown threa

26 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Just as the sun comes out, clouds appear in the East

22 May 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management

18 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Us-China cold war: Threat or blessing?

11 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Most welcome, if feeble, signs of pulling together

4 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Opening-up will be slower than locking down

27 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V or U-shaped recovery scenarios - the jury is out

20 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Lifting lockdown remains a delicate balancing act

20 April 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets between hope and despair

15 April 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Is now the time to invest?

13 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide

6 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?

30 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one

24 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do

23 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession

19 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets

18 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?

17 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble

16 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term

13 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar

12 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions

9 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn

6 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey

2 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home

28 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective

26 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear

24 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'

17 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine

10 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?

3 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019

Trading Statement

17 October 2019

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?