New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

25 August 2017, 12:00am

The past week brought a stabilisation of stock markets, as buyers returned to buy the latest dip. It would seem that despite the looming announcement of the reversal of QE by the US Fed (probably September) investors worldwide continue to have confidence that markets will not collapse as a result.

Macro-economic data releases provided support for such a view with the latest readings confirming that global economic growth remains firmly on track. Forward looking activity indicators in the form of the purchasing manager indices (PMIs) reported healthy levels of activity growth, with further acceleration still observable in the Eurozone, which is clearly taking over the growth baton from the US where waning business exuberance for Trump policy potential is leading to a first slight deceleration in the manufacturing sector.

On the back of this, Bloomberg, the global financial data, research and news provider expects 2017 global growth to accelerate to 3.4%, following the 3.1% reading for 2016.

The proverbial fly in the ointment for domestic UK assets was that £-Sterling hit a new low in its external value to other leading currencies (see chart above against the €-Euro), which can be interpreted as a no confidence vote of markets for the near-term future of the UK’s economic progress relative to the rest of the world. We look at this in more detail in a separate article and note that this latest decline may be no more and no less than a wider realisation that the UK’s economic progress has begun to diverge from the rest of Europe because of uncertainty over our future trade relationship with the rest of the block.

While we are currently likewise not the greatest fans of the UK stock market relative to the Eurozone and other global regions, we wonder whether this sudden renewed focus on the UK’s currency actually marks the end of this currency depreciation round, rather than the beginning of another.

While thoroughly unwelcome by all holiday makers from the UK, the lower value of £-Sterling also has its benefits for the economy, particularly in respect to export competitiveness and foreign investment.

This latest decline that started in April/May now amounts to roughly 10% and brings the total fall of the UK’s currency since the Brexit vote to around 25%. At this level UK business and other fixed assets are looking far more attractive to foreign buyers than those in the Eurozone and elsewhere, even with the looming Brexit uncertainty. Export growth on the back of the improved pricing position has so far disappointed, but the recent pick up in industrial production and manufacturing PMI readings suggest that there may have been a longer lag in this coming through than initially expected. 

We therefore anticipate that we may well have reached the trough of the 2017 UK activity decline and that it is more likely to get better from here to the end of the year, than worse.

The bigger concern for investment portfolio returns between now and year end is how capital markets will react to the aforementioned reduction of QE asset volumes by the US central bank, the Fed. It would be reasonable to expect that if QE had a positive impact on the development of asset values when it was in full swing, that it’s reduction will constitute a headwind to further upside in asset values.
This is broadly our expectation, although as we have commented on these pages in the past at length, this is likely to affect fixed interest bonds far more than equities. While rising yields rob bonds almost entirely of medium term upside potential to their capital value, growing company earnings can continue to provide valuation support for equities.

However, for the near-term the more imminent question is whether markets will experience a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, when both bond and equity values fell, when the Fed first announced that the time had come to gradually reduce any additional QE asset purchases. We got a timely reminder of this scenario back in June, however, it was quite brief and not very severe. It is therefore quite possible that history will not repeat and instead equity markets simply trade sideways until the economic impact becomes clear.

The economic impact is what will really count and here, from my vantage point three schools of thought are being most discussed. The first suggests that as long as central banks proceed with caution and plenty of pre-warning, broader financial condition should not tighten unduly because the improving economic environment, which necessitates the QE reduction in the first place, accelerates the turnover of money enough to compensate for the overall volume reduction of liquidity through the QE unwind. Thus, economic conditions should not deteriorate, but further asset price inflation beyond reasonable valuation levels should find less (liquidity) fuel.

The second view is even more straight forward and suggests, that since QE never really improved economic conditions in the first place and only inflated asset price, its gradual withdrawal will have equally nil impact on the economy and only reign in runaway valuations. While we beg to differ somewhat, the outcome would be the same than if we followed the first argument.

The third is the view of the doom and gloom mongers, who predict a collapse of bond markets, which triggers the second global financial crisis in just 10 years. We see this as highly unlikely, given the recent, very cautious track record of central bankers and would be concerned that on the opposite, interest rate and yield curve normalisation progress might prove too slow, opening up more substantial pressures to general price inflation further down the line.

As usual our view at Tatton is somewhere in the middle. We don’t expect major negative impacts on the global economy, but anticipate increased short term market volatility. This could be heightened to more disruptive levels through the unfortunate coinciding of any major geo-political crisis, be that from the side of the North Korea tensions or any rash global trade suppression from an increasingly ineffective US president Trump.

Undoubtedly equity investors are on edge (despite low general volatility readings) as three UK FTSE100 companies found out quite painfully this week. Profit warnings by international advertising agency WPP Plc led to their share price plummeting 12.5%, while Dixon Carphone warehouse Plc lost a staggering 32% on theirs, citing less consumer appetite for the latest mobile phone. Truly exceptional was the up to 75% share price collapse of subprime lender Provident Financial Plc, who were hapless enough to be able to combine every bit of current investor concern in one single company update.  

That the FTSE nevertheless closed up for the week underpins our medium term central case of a resilient overall economy and stock market.

Clearly, however, investors have also begun to apply far more scrutiny to individual company fortunes, now that with higher cost of capital on the horizon, plastering over poor performance or even the survival of ‘zombie’ companies will be so much harder than during the era of ‘easy money’.

This may provide a much needed boost to lagging productivity levels through better allocation of capital but could potentially lead to disappointment for purely passive equity market investors.
 
Please note: Data used within the Personal Finance Compass is sourced from Bloomberg and is only valid for the publication date of this document.
 

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13 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide

6 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?

30 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one

24 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do

23 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession

19 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets

18 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?

17 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble

16 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term

13 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar

12 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions

9 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn

6 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey

2 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home

28 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective

26 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear

24 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'

17 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine

10 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?

3 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020, 12:00am

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020, 12:00am

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?