New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

13 January 2020, 12:00am

Compared to last week’s ‘brink-of-war’ geopolitical shock start to the year over the US-Iran tensions, this week has brought relatively positive economic news, with not much to upset global markets, even if the general news flow was tragic from a humanitarian and environmental perspective. At the moment, no new bad news is good news in investments, with constant talk of “liquidity” (for institutional investors) and “dry-powder” (for private equity groups). Whether investors’ money is wet or dry, does not matter. The US’s NASDAQ tech stock index is above 9,000 for the first time, as we write.

Stock markets took it decidedly positively that Iran put more effort behind domestic propaganda than actual hostilities against the US and its allies. This allowed a return of the quiet with which the year originally started, even though many political observers warn that this may not be the end of the affair.

Turning back to the UK, Brexit may appear to be less of a concern for businesses, but the start of the UK-EU negotiations has done enough to take the edge off sterling, with our currency dropping back another 1% against the US dollar through the course of the week. Despite both sides being quite vocal about various positions (on fishing, the year-end deadline, not accepting EU rules, etc.), the dialogue appears to be reasonably direct and civil. We should expect lots more noise, and probably moves to expose confrontational positions quite quickly, in order to deal with the issues as soon as possible. As long as the noise is constant enough without being nasty, investors will become inured to it and things could appear to become less risky.

Meanwhile, the Chancellor announced that the budget will be on March 11th. Investment spending is highly likely to rise, and it appears Javid is intent on cutting taxes. That means debt will rise, and the Debt Management Office announced that it is raising planned gilt sales for 2019-2020 by £14bn to £136.8bn. Still, clearly, the government wants to limit debt-raising as much as possible. A swift current spending review is under way already with the clear imperative to cut costs ahead of this date. This will be a difficult trick to pull-off if the Conservatives new-found supporters are not to be upset.

Perhaps we should expect Brexit noises to increase around the time of the budget, in order to keep the electorate thinking positively about the new government and that might make sterling struggle a bit at that point.

The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, is soon to become Governor Andrew Bailey. Long live the governor. Bailey is an historian by training rather than an economist (Carney and his predecessor, Mervyn King were both economists). His time in charge of both the major financial regulation bodies has been not without issue. However, he is very well regarded by those he works with and beyond – a team-player.

The Monetary Policy Committee has had a hard time being seen as effective under Mark Carney, though one would be hard-pressed to come up with a more difficult set of circumstances. Carney gives way to Bailey on March 16th, just after the budget. In the meantime, he has been sounding more dovish this week, something that may be a function of the recent currency stability.

The Bank of England held a private conference yesterday (Thursday 9th) to discuss the role of inflation targeting. Invitees included Philip Lane, the ECB Chief Economist, and John Williams, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. After the August Central Banker Conference at Jackson Hole in the US, deliberations on “the effective lower bound” for interest rates have been growing. It may not be 0% but it looks like it is higher than -1%, at least for the major economies. It also seems that expectations of rates below 0% should not be maintained. This seems to be mostly because of the impact on commercial banks and their profitability, which, whether one likes them or not, remain crucial for any economy’s health. Both BoJ and the ECB have been allowing rates for longer maturity bonds to rise, so that the volume of bonds yielding below 0% has shrunk substantially. This chart from Bloomberg that shows that total volume over time:



There is a lot going on in bonds at the moment, and not just because of potential central bank policy changes.
 
If equity markets are signalling a long and decent period of revenue growth (which the high relative valuations of stocks suggest to some degree), it will be associated with expectations of stable economic growth. Despite a slightly weaker than expected US non-farm payroll figure for December (+145,000, against expectations of +160,000), labour markets are tight. Wage rises are increasing which should support consumer demand – but also revive inflationary pressures. This is also true for Europe and the UK, even for China and Japan despite a slight pull-back. Meanwhile commodities have started to rise, again despite the slight fall-back in oil prices this week.

Following last year’s very strong return picture across stock and bonds, the relative stability of global economic growth should put a solid base under equity prices, even though last year’s rises have ‘front-run’ much of the actual positives to come. This make a 2020 repeat of 2019’s return picture fairly unlikely. However, higher growth and higher inflation are not good for fixed coupon bonds, even if central banks are saying they will keep short-term interest rates at their low levels. Indeed, the act of not changing short-term interest rates could well make long-term interest rates higher, not lower – which will put downward pressure on bond values.

With relative calm returned, 2020 once again looks likely to bring a return of stable if low economic growth rates, which, because already largely priced in by stock markets, is more likely to lead to less dynamic returns and to a consolidation of government bond valuations. The more the global economy surprises to the upside the worse for bonds. Not surprising then that at the moment we are watching more and more closely the dynamics that drive bond prices.

 

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17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?