New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term

16 March 2020

We are nearing the end of one of those weeks that will remain in the memories of the investment community for a very long time. Because of the extremely rapid fall from the all-time high that global markets had reached on 19 February, this stock market crash is right up there with 2008, 1987 and yes 1929. However, this is where any obvious similarities end. Compared to those historical precedents, this one has been caused by an external – and widely expected to be temporary – shock to global economic activity levels.

This week the headwinds that markets had to contend with were boosted by three further factors which all could have been avoided, if those in charge had acted more responsibly and with a bit more foresight. First, the latent oil supply overhang that has been an issue for a while, meant that OPEC and Russia had to make some painful calls and compromises. When they failed to do so, the virus crisis was doubled up with a (reverse) oil price emergency. Since slumping oil prices derailed stock markets in 2015/2016, it was not surprising stock market participants reacted to the news with heavy sell orders.

The next two accelerators hit on the same day. Donald Trump’s COVID-19 action plan was so clearly insufficient, or barely even competent, that the full-blown virus scare had finally arrived for the US public. At the same time, capital markets experienced its very own ‘toilet paper panic buying’ moment. Except that it was cash that so many investors wanted to desperately get hold of, before someone else got hold of it first. Why such an outsized dash for cash? Well, as we already commented in separate notes over the few last days, shutdowns require higher levels of cash in circulation than in normal times. When, on top of this, speculative investors become distressed sellers to meet margin calls, then cash-raising pressures further push down liquid assets – be it stocks or bonds – quickly below valuation levels that cannot be explained by rational reassessments of the near-term future of the global economy.

We have noted with interest that private investors have acted far more rationally in this environment and did not join the panic selling in the herd mentality of old, as global fund flow figures showed. Have they perhaps learned from the financial crisis of ten years ago that market events like this week are best sat out, or if cash is available could even be seen as long-term buying opportunities?

We believe unbiased and factual information and assessment is the best guide to investments, so this week we have dedicated the majority of the hyperlinked full version of the Tatton Weekly to a full assessment of the short, the medium and the long-term considerations we believe any private investor should consider, and be cognisant of, in these turbulent days and weeks. Thank you for having a click and read.

News Archive

30 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one

24 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do

23 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession

19 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets

18 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?

17 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble

16 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term

13 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar

12 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions

9 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn

6 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey

2 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home

28 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective

26 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear

24 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'

17 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine

10 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?

3 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019

Trading Statement

17 October 2019

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?