New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

18 February 2019, 12:00am

After another week of fairly positive market action, the pattern of last year’s global stock market sell-off and ongoing recovery this year is beginning to look more and more like the previous correction episodes of 2013 and 2016. Just as then, the combination of economic growth deceleration and central banks’ attempts to put the monetary genie of quantitative monetary easing (QE) back into the bottle caused a more pronounced market upset than many thought possible or rational. At this rate then it seems reasonable to assume that the monetary overhang created by the remedies against the global financial crisis have created capital market ‘hangover’ potential which will be with us for some  years to come.

From such a perspective we could just decide to move on as we did back in 2013 and 2016 and look forward to another extension of economic expansion and rewarding capital market investment returns in this mega cycle. That is  if it was not for the Damocles Sword-like threat that is hanging over this recovery in the form of trade politics on either side of the Atlantic.

In the US it seemed that the market upset and economic deceleration has created enough pressure to persuade Trump and his administration to press on with their trade talks with China in earnest and avoid having to impose the threatened penal tariffs from 1 March. As long as a memorandum of understanding can be agreed by then, it seems that an extension of last year’s tariff truce will be enacted, with a view to scrapping all tariffs between the two countries soon thereafter.

Speaking of extension, we have entered Brexit territory once again – which is the other potential trade conflict overhanging the sunny recovery prospect. We understand that most of our readers just like most people in the UK would rather we did not have to discuss the dreaded subject here as well, but I am afraid, given the potential economic impact it has, we, as investment managers have to look at it. In the remainder of this article we will share with you our investment assessment of the different potential outcomes that are beginning to appear on the March 29 horizon.

Looking back over the past two and a half years, you would be hard-pressed to find any investment outlook piece on the UK that doesn’t bear the word ‘Brexit’. So all-encompassing is Britain’s European divorce that you get the impression that UK growth prospects are entirely decided by Brexit gyrations. And yet, just six weeks until we are meant to officially say good-bye, Britain’s future relationship with the EU remains as unclear as ever. The Prime Minister just lost another vote in the Commons (her 11th!) – not that this one mattered much as it merely asked the House to “reiterate its support” for the last Brexit vote on 29 January. However, to the rest of the EU it must prove once again that the country and its elected representatives are so deeply divided over the issue that it seems unlikely that the UK government could possibly unite either them or the people behind any form of Brexit deal that may realistically be on offer.

Given the tumultuous climate Brexit predictions are rarely worth the paper they are written on. Nevertheless, as investment managers we have to make assessments about what one or the other or third possible outcome may do to the UK economy and in turn to UK investment assets.

So here are four scenarios which we have to consider:

No Brexit: Parliament makes Brexit disappear, we all shake hands and the last two years just go down as a silly mistake. That’s the amendment proposed by SNP MP Angus MacNeil, which has gained the support of Tory veteran Ken Clarke. Stock and currency markets would bite your hand off if you offered this to them. However, unless the EU27 suddenly offered to forget about their ‘red lines’, like freedom of movement or the Irish Backstop, it’s about as likely as the fairy-tale Brexit stories printed on the side of buses in early 2016.

May’s deal: The Prime Minister’s Brexit deal somehow makes it through Parliament. The customs union is extended until we can agree a comprehensive trade deal, which achieves some near-term trading certainty and a sort of acceptable, longer perspective about Britain’s future. Markets and businesses would most likely take this pretty well, given the support they have expressed for such an outcome over recent weeks. Just how this could happen in a Parliament split between hard Brexiteers and staunch Remainers is a little trickier. The government would undoubtedly need to make some concessions to the Labour party – and get them approved by EU negotiators. Getting her deal through is clearly what Theresa May is still aiming for and if she can get some side deal to appease the Northern Ireland issue as well, then maybe, maybe this may still happen. Brexit day would very likely need to be postponed a few weeks to allow Parliament to catch up with all the legislation that still needs to be passed to make it happen.

Brexit delay (and possible referendum): B-day is pushed back, the proverbial can gets kicked down the road. But unless there is suddenly some real perspective as to  how more negotiating time may resolve the issue(s), then another referendum or even a general election is beginning to look likely. More political uncertainty would be the result and even social unrest is a possibility. Depending on what the perspective is for the delay, markets may take it as a repeat of 2018, when global themes dominated, but if it leads to more political stalemate, then UK investment assets may suffer further international discounting.

No deal: Parliament remains paralysed, and we go over the edge. Given some Brexiteers are trying to block attempts to prevent this, it seems a real possibility – one we get closer to every day. For now, we have to take heart in the fact that this is the least preferred option among both British and European leaders, as, of all available options, it will result in the most economic pain on both sides. We observe that there appears to be a solid majority in parliament that would force an extension of Article 50 rather than experiment with a crash Brexit. However, if it somehow happened in the end, then capital markets are relatively likely to frighten politicians back to a more constructive course in fairly short order. Whether the projected chaos would descend on us would very much depend on whether the two sides want to instrumentalise the suffering of ordinary people on both sides to further their negotiating aims. Last time that happened in the EU was during the Greece crisis – our assumption is that we will not sink that far again.

What has the uncertainty of Brexit meant for the UK economy thus far? Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Monday were shot through with the impacts of Brexit. UK growth last year was its lowest since the financial crisis, and we’ve now had four consecutive quarters of declining business investment. The results were worse than forecasters had expected, with Britain - during 2018 - underperforming everyone except Italy in the world’s leading economies. Most economists agree that Brexit has already cost the UK 1.5-2.5% of GDP, and household incomes are on average 4.1% lower than they would have been if Remain had won in 2016.

A year ago, we wrote that the UK was in a state of delicate equilibrium. Brexit drama was keeping the value of sterling down against the euro, which offered British exporters a price advantage over their European competitors and allowed them to take advantage of strong growth on the continent. Now, that equilibrium has been disturbed. Sterling is still weak, but now so too is the European economy. And price competitiveness is all for naught if your buyers can’t afford to buy.

On top of that, Brexit uncertainty has now reached a point where EU businesses refuse to make even short-term deals with their British suppliers unless they absolutely have to, for fear of being disrupted by a sudden change next month. The messy divorce is now hurting UK businesses not just through the lack of investment but also on their bottom line. Our most important trading partners are scared to trade with us, and there is no perspective on which to build future plans.

What does this mean for asset prices? In our outlook for 2019, we wrote that Brexit pessimism had skewed UK assets so much that they were effectively undervalued – and carried a hefty risk premium. But in the first few weeks of the year, two things have happened: Brexit risks have increased (as we get closer to the exit date with no plan in sight) and so have asset prices. In sterling terms, the FTSE 100 is up 7% year-to-date. This means that, while UK assets were undervalued relative to their risk before, this is far less so now. It’s entirely possible that the rebound in UK equities has further to go – even if Brexit gets worse. But as we get closer to the 29 March exit date, things will get more difficult.

For now, the economic news flow will continue to be all things Brexit. Hopefully, the next few weeks should give us some much-needed clarity. Until then, we hold our breath and bank on our belief that in the end the political actors want to avoid bringing harm on their electorates.

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New article from Tatton Investment Management: Most welcome, if feeble, signs of pulling together

4 May 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Opening-up will be slower than locking down

27 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V or U-shaped recovery scenarios - the jury is out

20 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Lifting lockdown remains a delicate balancing act

20 April 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets between hope and despair

15 April 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Is now the time to invest?

13 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide

6 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?

30 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one

24 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do

23 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession

19 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets

18 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?

17 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble

16 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term

13 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar

12 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions

9 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn

6 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey

2 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home

28 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective

26 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear

24 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'

17 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine

10 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?

3 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020, 12:00am

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020, 12:00am

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?