New article from Tatton Investment Management: Don't look down

12 July 2021

Global equities have been on a pretty rapid ascent since the start of the year. This week the world’s investors had a bout of looking down, and a mild attack of vertigo. This dizzyness has been prompted by some reasonable worries. Do we have enough food (earnings growth) to carry on? Is the strong tailwind (in the form of liquidity) about to turn into a headwind? Has one of our party (China) already started slipping back down?

We’ve been going through these thoughts in our quarterly investment committee meetings, and the main conclusion is that things are generally likely to remain supportive for markets. But that is not to say it will be a gentle and comforting climb up the hill.

We have good reason to think the current vaccines are – and will remain – effective. But with the ongoing increase in case numbers, and the Delta variant spreading across both vaccinated and unvaccinated regions, there is a chance of a mutation which could be less impacted by vaccines. Still, in our view, this is not the greatest risk to markets. 

There is a potential for monetary and fiscal support to be removed too early, tightening financial conditions before we have moved beyond the COVID bounce. At its last meeting, the policy committee of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) made noises about interest rate moves coming into the far-end of its two-year horizon, and that bond purchases might be less necessary. However, some of the worries revolve around its operational ability, marshalling the day-to-day circulation of money in the US financial system. We take a look at this aspect in an article below. 

The slowing of US monetary growth is a mild worry for us. It’s not that liquidity will tighten in an overall way but small disruptions can create risk vortices. 

For the developed world, and particularly the US, the increase in the stock of savings has come from government cash handouts and from the rise in asset price values. The US is going through another cash handout at the moment, with a disbursement of child support tax credits. This programme will be longer-lasting than federal support for unemployment, but is also the last of these sorts of payment.

Workers everywhere have been comfortable enough to not rush back into the workplace, but that period is ending. Jobs are plentiful across the developed world, but workers/consumers have shown a little wobble in confidence as they are faced with making sometimes uncomfortable choices. We think this will pass and is at the heart of the path towards normality, and a transition in the mid-phase of an economic growth cycle.

Nevertheless, this easing down from the very strong growth seen in April and May is a factor in slower growth of  US earnings expectations, especially in cyclical companies. The chart below shows JP Morgan’s current run rate of GDP growth estimates and how they’ve changed over 2021. 



Liquidity is still plentiful and, even if it is also slowing, it is not contracting. We think that the recent rise in risk aversion has rapidly translated into some quite sharp falls in longer bond yields. At one stage yesterday (Thursday 8th July), the 10-year US bond yield dropped to 1.25%, 30 basis points below the yield after the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Bond yields elsewhere dropped, and virtually all developed world 10-year government bond yields are lower than a week ago by about 10 basis points (-0.1%). Interestingly, such moves have barely touched credit spreads, a situation which provides support for equities despite the slower growth expectations. Relative to corporate bonds, developed market equities look better value than they have done than at any time this year.

This is not true is in China. The slide in growth has been worrying, as much of it has been policy-induced. The sharp unwind of equity markets this week has come immediately after the 100-year Communist Party celebrations, and is fuelled by the authorities’ compression of some large companies. Credit spreads have widened sharply here, unlike the rest of the world.

We had been expecting a reversal in policy direction, and so it came to pass when the People’s Bank of China announced a further reduction in the capital banks need to provide for lending (known as the reserve requirement ratio). The rest of the year is likely to be a bit easier for a lot of the private sector, although perhaps not for companies or owners that become too visible.

Slower growth passages following on from the vibrant bounceback of opening up periods is to be expected. Market worries about central bank policies and declining liquidity growth are also likely to cause some volatility. It could be that a sharp feedback loop provokes worries about “wealth effects” especially in the US, where the more highly valued stocks are abundant.

However, we feel these worries are likely to prove temporary. Growth should stabilise at a strong level during the second half, buoyed particularly by an accelerating Europe. Global jobs growth should become entrenched at a strong level. Equities should remain well supported by continued upward earnings revisions, even if yields start heading somewhat higher again.

The greatest risks centre on hopes for continued global government policy support for investment in infrastructure, jobs markets and training. Investors have less scepticism than usual about governments’ ability to drive the agenda, and the execution. There is no doubt such policies are needed if profit and earnings opportunity are to generate growth above the insipid levels of the past decade. Markets are partially priced for such an outcome, and they could be disappointed.

A final note; we write about the private equity bidding for WM Morrison below. For the first time in a long time, a significant number of UK companies have begun to look more attractive in relative valuations than their European counterparts. This is important to private equity investors who have a lot of “dry powder” (their phrase for cash to waiting be deployed) and therefore currently find the larger targets to be quite attractive. Much depends on UK corporate bond yields remaining low but, should they do so, UK equities could see the end of this long period of under-performance.

We remain hopeful, and watchful.

News Archive

18 October 2021

News from Tatton Investment Management: Have we passed the peak of supply disruption?

8 October 2021

News from Tatton Investment Management: Economy hits an air pocket

1 October 2021

News from Tatton Investment Management: Rising yields are back

24 September 2021

News from Tatton Investment Management: Wall of worry time

17 September 2021

News from Tatton Investment Management: End of the re-opening honeymoon

10 September 2021

News from Tatton Investment Management: Paying for it - major economies ponder their balance sheets

3 September 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Politics and policy sit at the head of the table

27 August 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fed tapering: the 'how' matters more than 'when'

20 August 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets hit a bit of to and fro

16 August 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Climbing the wall of worry - again

11 August 2021

Midas Share Tips: The Daily Mail views onTatton Asset Management

6 August 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mega techs under the cosh

30 July 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull as markets go through the motions

23 July 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets wake up to living with the virus

16 July 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Earnings vs Delta

12 July 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Don't look down

2 July 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Transition uncertainties

25 June 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Moderating expectations

18 June 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investors try to make sense of the Feds 'dot-plot'

11 June 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hazy as Carbis Bay

4 June 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Going up sideways

28 May 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Touch of Goldilocks at the end of May

21 May 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market resilience in face of Bitcoin crash

14 May 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market vertigo galore

10 May 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sell in May and go away?

30 April 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Doubling of earnings leaves markets cold

23 April 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 'Risk on' pauses while the real world keeps accelerat

19 April 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: New bond news gives green light for equity investors

9 April 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets signal economic optimism

1 April 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The first quarter of 2021 was no April fool

26 March 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The world is moving on from the pandemic

19 March 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tug of war - bonds vs. equities

12 March 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recalibrations

5 March 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets find they cannot have it both ways

26 February 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Earnings look set to stabilise wobbling markets

19 February 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: One year on - who would have thought

12 February 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No UK double dip, but much talk of bubbles

5 February 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Calming of nerves

1 February 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A fraying of nerves

25 January 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A sigh of relief

15 January 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fiscal turbo replaces lame duck Trump

8 January 2021

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End points and new beginnings

18 December 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye to all that

14 December 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Outlook 2021 - no deal Brexit?

4 December 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: December concerns over baubles and bubbles

27 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fiscal floundering

20 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More tunnel before the light

18 November 2020

Interim Results For The Six Month Period Ended 30 September 2020

13 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change is in the air

6 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking beyond the obvious

4 November 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US Election Update

2 November 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: US election, the response to the pandemic and Brexit

30 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unsettled week ahead - or behind

26 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sunlit uplands or COVID gorge?

19 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Watching and waiting

12 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Baffling market optimism

2 October 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A question of time horizons

25 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A recovery on hold

18 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Taking a step back to look forward

14 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Frictions and contradictions

7 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market dynamic of a K-shaped recovery

1 September 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Big tech gets bigger while the Fed takes the easy opt

24 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fed leaves bond investors with that sinking feeling

17 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID II the sequel - as scary as the original?

10 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: July brings consolidation

2 August 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sunshine and shadows

27 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: PPE = Politics, Pressure and Economics

20 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Discomfort of disappearing safety nets

13 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fast and freewheeling

3 July 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: H1 2020 offers meaningful lessons

29 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Support balances increasing strains - for how long?

22 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Equity valuations follow bond valuations' lead

15 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets suffer altitude sickness

8 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are enjoying an uncomfortably benign pandemic

1 June 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Optimistic markets despite second wave lockdown threa

26 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Just as the sun comes out, clouds appear in the East

22 May 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management

18 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Us-China cold war: Threat or blessing?

11 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Most welcome, if feeble, signs of pulling together

4 May 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Opening-up will be slower than locking down

27 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V or U-shaped recovery scenarios - the jury is out

20 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Lifting lockdown remains a delicate balancing act

20 April 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets between hope and despair

15 April 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Is now the time to invest?

13 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide

6 April 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?

30 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one

24 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do

23 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession

19 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets

18 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?

17 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble

16 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term

13 March 2020

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar

12 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions

9 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn

6 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey

2 March 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home

28 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective

26 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear

24 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'

17 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine

10 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?

3 February 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019

Trading Statement

17 October 2019

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?