New article from Tatton Investment Management: A recovery on hold
25 September 2020, 12:00am
September continues to bite equity markets. Stocks everywhere wobbled again this week and even though they bounced back, the S&P500 is down around 8% in US Dollar terms for the month. UK investors might notice less of a fall, with global equities down just 1% in sterling terms. This is partly due to the fall in sterling itself, with the pound suffering yet again from adverse Brexit news.
Despite the drama in stock markets, bond markets have been eerily calm. Government bond yields have been stable – not falling amid stories of the impending economic slowdown, but likewise not rising in disapproval when governments around the world issue vast amounts of new debt. This inert response has good and bad implications. Immovable bond yields allow governments to borrow at practically non-existent rates indefinitely, helping them reflate their lagging economies through fiscal action. But from an investment perspective, flatlining yields break the inverse relationship between bonds and equities. That hinders the risk offset that bonds provide investors, making multi-asset portfolios riskier, at least in the short-term.
Still, in the deepest-ever recession, governments having fiscal free rein is an economic positive. And politicians look happy to exercise that freedom. On Thursday, UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a new work support scheme, set to replace furlough. The top-up pay scheme was praised (though not universally) for its similarity to those in Europe – particularly the German Kurzarbeitergeld (translated as “short-time work allowance”) programme. Nevertheless, under current plans, the cap in government wage payments will be just 28% of what furlough originally provided.
Meanwhile, Europe’s economic recovery has stumbled, and may have even temporarily reversed. After a spike in coronavirus cases, business sentiment for the services sector has been particularly disappointing. Thankfully, European government support measures are stable. Manufacturing PMIs and other indicators remain positive, such as the Germany IFO Business Climate, which rose from August’s 92.6 to September’s 93.4
Markets have already shown they are happy with fiscal expansion. The main issue for markets is rather the opposite: The wider public’s jeers of ‘how do we pay for it’ have already begun. Politicians are worried about the cost of their fiscal support and have started cutting incomes in response. At the same time, the continued second wave of virus cases is scaring both governments and the public away from normal economic activity. Many no longer want to go about their routines of work, spend and leisure, and those that do are limited by re-imposed government restrictions. That means businesses will be facing much lower levels of demand. And, with governments now only providing limited support, firms will have to find some way of cutting costs. As usual, wages will be the first costs cut. At least some increase in unemployment is inevitable.
In the US, the situation is also worrying. The political chasm between the Republicans and Democrats means that, despite both sides agreeing further stimulus is needed, getting a bill passed is near-impossible. The US Congress this week did manage to pass a bill avoiding a government shutdown at the end of the year – an unfortunately common occurrence – but it is virtually insignificant in the face of this economic crisis. Without another round of fiscal support, the US economic outlook is beginning to look bleak.
As we wrote when this crisis first set in, questions of how the support is paid should not get in the way of the fact that it is needed. Rory MacQueen, principal economist at the UK’s highly regarded National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), points out: “Now is not the time to be talking about scare stories about government debt.” MacQueen notes: “There is no indication whatsoever that the current approach is causing any problems or any question marks to appear over the sustainability of government debt”. Recent bond market moves suggest he is right.
This week, the UK’s Debt Management Office sold £6.5 billion of 40‑year(!) bonds at a yield of just 0.66%. The amount of orders (demand) that investors put in massively overshot supply when they came in at about $50 billion. This is a clear-as-day signal from capital markets that, if higher debt levels are what is needed to stave off a classic recession, then higher debt levels it is. Markets are practically giving money away to governments, but governments are hesitant to take it.
Politicians are clearly worried about the long-term cost of the emergency measures. However, what we can read from this week’s equity sell-off is that stock markets are much more worried about the short-term cost of an avoidable recession. Fortunately, no politician pays attention to the stock market quite like Donald Trump does. He seems to see stock prices as the measure of his presidency, and will no doubt be concerned about September’s sell-off. Even if Congress cannot pass any fiscal support, the President can use executive orders to “repurpose” funds toward unemployment support. Given that this could paint him as a saviour of markets and the economy – with just 39 days till an election – he can be counted on to do so.
Capital markets can be fickle, sometimes ignoring bad economic conditions to see light at the end of the tunnel, and sometimes reacting massively to news that brings short-term uncertainty. Clearly, this year we have seen both. September’s market declines are still on the ‘long view’ side, as it is becoming clear that the initially steep V-shaped recovery after the government-imposed recession is levelling off towards more of a reversed square root sign.
Clearly, the relative calm of the summer has given way to a choppier sideways market trend, just as our lives have once again been interrupted by the second wave of COVID-19. Markets have had to readjust their expectations, with so much now hinging on politicians. Should governments falter in their ongoing fiscal policy support while COVID restrictions are still in place, there are bound to be short sharp bouts of market volatility, as we experienced this week.
However, compared to March, the health impacts of Coronavirus are significantly less uncertain. Not only have health services been able – so far – to better treat those most at risk, but also those who are vulnerable are this time likely to be better shielded. In the best case, this means COVID-19 has lost much of its fearsome public health impact and no longer leads to a higher excess mortality than usual flu epidemics. At worst, our ability to cope better buys time, which gets us ever closer to an effective vaccine. This is increasingly seen as coming forward from ‘sometime in 2021’ to ‘towards the end of 2020’. Markets are therefore probably right to temper their optimism, while also not falling back into panic about the medium-term future.
We continue to closely monitor whether politicians are playing their part in preventing lasting scarring on those sectors of the economy most affected by the continued restrictions. Central banks and capital markets have done their bit in providing the funding, but as the saying goes, you can only lead a horse to water. Depending on politicians’ fiscal resolve – and how they spend their money – the default risk of previously-viable businesses will either continue to be contained or begin to rise. The same applies to unemployment. At the moment, credit markets are telling us that default risk is rising, and parts of the equity markets are telling us that the short-term consumer demand outlook is falling. Nothing too dramatic yet, but a clear deterioration from the summer.
We are beginning to reach the point where we must hope the impact of the second wave causes the least negative economic impact, before the responsibility for ‘saving lives’ can be handled by vaccination rather than restriction of freedoms. This pivotal moment may not be that far away, and is one that many are not yet fully factoring in. So, while this week felt decisively gloomy compared to the summer’s recovery period, we see the return of increases in restrictions more as a pause to the recovery rather than the end.
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New article from Tatton Investment Management: Most welcome, if feeble, signs of pulling together
4 May 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Opening-up will be slower than locking down
27 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: V or U-shaped recovery scenarios - the jury is out
20 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Lifting lockdown remains a delicate balancing act
20 April 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets between hope and despair
15 April 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Is now the time to invest?
13 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide
6 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?
30 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one
24 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do
23 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession
19 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets
18 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?
17 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble
16 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term
13 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar
12 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions
9 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn
6 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey
2 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home
28 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective
26 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear
24 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'
17 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine
10 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?
3 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week
27 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?
20 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018
14 January 2020, 12:00am
13 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good
8 January 2020, 12:00am
Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us
6 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card
23 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!
16 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook
8 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?
2 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets
25 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check
18 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music
11 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat
11 November 2019, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019
4 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind
28 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning
21 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue
17 October 2019, 12:00am
17 October 2019, 12:00am
Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)
14 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
7 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading
30 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength
23 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re
16 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
9 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...
2 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'
27 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?
19 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets
11 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again
5 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady
29 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick
22 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly
15 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see
8 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs
1 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?
24 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’
17 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages
10 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?
3 June 2019, 12:00am
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Appointment by Frenkel Topping
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019
3 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings
27 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer
20 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?
13 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage
7 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations
29 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice
23 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?
16 April 2019, 12:00am
Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019
15 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving
8 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market
1 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end
25 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions
18 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces
11 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed
4 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay
25 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?
18 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes
15 November 2018, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018
15 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off
1 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?
27 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new
7 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead
31 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the worldâ€
24 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics
17 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost
10 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he
3 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?
27 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?
20 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?
13 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?
6 July 2018, 12:00am
Notice of Annual General Meeting
6 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot
29 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?
27 June 2018, 12:00am
Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018
22 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery
15 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises
8 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium
1 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril
25 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!
18 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?
11 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?
4 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?
27 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?
20 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that
29 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter
23 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!
16 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?
9 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth
2 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits
23 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?
16 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment
9 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac
6 February 2018, 12:00am
Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment
2 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!
26 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises
19 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion
12 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells
5 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off
15 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock
8 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin
5 December 2017, 12:00am
Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017
1 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected
24 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?
17 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?
10 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets
3 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate
27 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season
13 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be
6 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news
29 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements
22 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft
15 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?
8 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes
1 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news
25 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?
18 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers
11 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?
4 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling
28 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’
21 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed
14 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check
7 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe
23 June 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?