Latest news from Tatton Investment Management: Known winner, unknown outcomes

8 November 2024, 05:00pm

 

For the sake of investors, we hoped for a quickly resolved US election, and we got one. Capital markets responded well to Donald Trump’s surprisingly decisive win, with US stocks rallying from Wednesday on. Investors deemed it good news for the US, but less so for Europe and the UK, whose stocks had a tougher week. This side of the Atlantic, equities and currencies sold off and underperformed rampant US markets by a remarkable 5%.
 
Investors expect more tax cuts and a generally easier environment for American businesses – particularly for top Trump surrogate Elon Musk, whose Tesla shares soared nearly 20% this week. But there are still uncertainties ahead in a second Trump presidency. We expect some risks but potentially also higher rewards for US risk assets in the medium-term.

Tax cuts before tariffs?
Avid stock market watcher Donald Trump will feel vindicated by the record highs of the S&P 500 this week. It is fair to say that markets are excited, but the post-election rally was amplified by investors’ recent de-risking ahead of what looked like an uncertain vote. There will be no fight to overturn this election, and Trump’s Republican party are favourites for a ‘clean sweep’ (control of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives), increasing the probability of promised tax changes. That clarity and lack of instability helped unlock pent up demand for risk assets.

Policy details are still uncertain, though. Trump was elected on an anti-immigration platform, but the influx of 5 million migrants since the pandemic has been a driving force for its economic outperformance – as well as the recent fall in wage inflation pressures. The president-elect also promised high tariffs during the campaign, which economists argued would push up inflation. The tariff numbers he suggested far exceed those introduced in his first term. As the graph below shows, it would raise average mark-up for American imports to its highest ever level.
                          

Of course, the sheer size of that potential impact should lead us to doubt whether Trump would actually raise tariffs so high – at least in the short-term, considering his big campaign promise to lower inflation. The timeline of Trump’s policy changes matter just as much for the American economy as the changes themselves. If tariffs and mass deportations happened before his promised supply-side improvements took effect, the result would be higher inflation and lower growth. This suggests that stimulatory measures like tax cuts will come before the restrictive measures. That would be a rational approach to fulfilling his campaign promises in the face of economic reality – but we know that predicting what a Trump administration will do is difficult.
 
Less tax revenue will mean more government debt in the short term – the impacts of which we discuss in a separate article. Over the long-term, Trump is likely to cut government spending, particularly if Republicans achieve a clean sweep. Trump adviser Elon Musk talked about cutting trillions from the federal budget. The idea is to improve the productivity of government spending rather than simply gut it, but even so, the magnitude of such cuts would inevitably dampen growth. Whatever happens depends on who else gets appointed to the cabinet.

Germany’s political collapse could mark its economic nadir.
Speaking of political uncertainty, Germany’s governmental collapse this week over a budget disagreement could have a major impact on the European economy. An election is likely in the next few months, and after a painful hit to living standards for the worst off we expect the mainstream parties to promise protectionist policies, to prevent the right-wing populist movement gaining ground.
 
The political problem is strongly linked to Germany’s underlying economic problem: it suffered a cost shock and a revenue drought at the same time. Europe’s largest economy benefitted substantially over decades from cheap Russian energy, but the post-Ukraine adjustment has been extremely tough. To make matters worse, the prolonged recession in global manufacturing – caused by Chinese overproduction and ‘dumping’ – is weighing on German manufacturers. Profits are being squeezed from both sides, resulting in job losses while living costs are still rising.
 
There are signs that both sides of that problem could improve, however. Trump’s victory makes it more likely that Ukraine will be forced to cede territory to Russia (if only by default, as with Crimea before) in return for an end of a nearly three-year war. We might not like that outcome, but it would mean a reduction in immediate conflict, and hence less pressure on European energy prices. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has recognised the need to support domestic demand with a $1.4 trillion stimulus package this week (to which we dedicate a separate article) which could signal an end to overproduction. Germany’s cost and revenue pressures might ease simultaneously. We just hope there will be a rational, functioning government to guide toward that light at the end of the tunnel.

UK bonds will keep following the US – for now.
It shows how important the political news has been that we are near the end of this article without mentioning this week’s interest rate cuts. The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England both lowered rates by 0.25 percentage points on Thursday, as markets fully anticipated. Fed chair Powell refused to speculate on the potential policy impacts from a second Trump term, but he did note that material changes to US debt dynamics would have to be taken into account. Bond yields came down after the Fed’s cut, having risen on the election news.
 
Although last week’s autumn budget increased Britain’s medium-term inflation outlook, UK bonds continue to be dominated by those US yield moves. The budget pushed UK bond yields above their US counterparts, but the two central banks remain in lockstep and the two markets are unlikely to diverge much, as the US and UK are thought to have similar inflation pressures. It also helped that BoE governor Bailey continues to sound relatively dovish (preferring lower rates) in press conferences. 
 
The US-UK bond relationship could shift long-term, however. Britain’s growth and inflation outlook is tied much more closely to struggling Europe, while the UK government’s fiscal stance will probably remain more prudent, despite last week’s budget being clearly expansionary. 

Meanwhile, we have spoken about the long-term bond market risks that could come from a second Trump presidency, which could keep US yields relatively more elevated. For the time being, however, any move up in US yields is likely to do the same to UK yields, which could cause some headwinds. 

Trump was the 45th president and will be the 47th president of the United States.
Trump will not be inaugurated until January 20th, but his transition team (headed by Cantor Fitzgerald’s Howard Lutnick) will appoint a cabinet before then that will probably be very different to his first term. His victory address characterised the next four years as “promises made, promises kept”, perhaps out of a sense of disappointment with his first term. His early tax cuts had significant economic impacts, but many felt that the constant sense of turbulence and drama were significant barriers to achieving more. Now he has another chance, perhaps a better idea of what he wants to do and, almost certainly, a unified legislature with which to do it. 

If he is to bring anything to fruition, he needs his cabinet to be adept and stable for the whole term. Thus, investors will look for the team to be credible and for the incoming President to allow them to set policy detail. In particular, policy implementation of policy has to be coordinated, to avoid destabilising the economy. Markets are betting that he is likely to succeed. We hope so.

News Archive

29 November 2024, 05:00pm

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30 October 2020, 12:00am

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19 October 2020, 12:00am

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24 August 2020, 12:00am

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10 August 2020, 12:00am

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27 July 2020, 12:00am

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15 June 2020, 12:00am

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26 May 2020, 12:00am

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22 May 2020, 12:00am

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18 May 2020, 12:00am

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11 May 2020, 12:00am

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4 May 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Opening-up will be slower than locking down

27 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V or U-shaped recovery scenarios - the jury is out

20 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Lifting lockdown remains a delicate balancing act

20 April 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets between hope and despair

15 April 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Is now the time to invest?

13 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide

6 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?

30 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one

24 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do

23 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession

19 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets

18 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?

17 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble

16 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term

13 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar

12 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions

9 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn

6 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey

2 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home

28 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective

26 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear

24 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'

17 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine

10 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?

3 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020, 12:00am

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020, 12:00am

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?