Latest news from Tatton Investment Management: A bit of a downer

8 December 2023, 05:00pm

We review November’s cheery asset performance below. Early December is also currently on a positive track and trading volumes have been higher than November’s averages generally, suggesting quite a bit of capital is being put to work by investors. 

Global bond yields have fallen yet again (meaning bond prices have risen). This has been driven by a round of some indications of weaker employment data in the US and soft (but not awful) purchasing manager survey indices, combined with dovish noises especially from members of the European Central Bank (ECB). 

The US employment report surprised economists by showing a reasonable level of job creation and a very surprising fall in the unemployment rate. Rate expectations have fallen because the policy setters at the US Federal Reserve (Fed) appear be more focused on inflation declines than worrying about what level of unemployment is too low for comfort. However, bond investors had expected the US unemployment rate to worsen to 4% at least and November’s data does not allow for any rate cuts without some other factor impinging. Equities saw some softness (especially in the raw materials and energy areas which we discuss below). However, the US ‘Magnificent Seven’ had a good bounce after enduring some fears about their exposure to softer consumer demand.

Over the course of this week, there was some notice taken of a rise in the “Secured Overnight Financing Rate”, a well-used interbank market. In  truth, the move was small but participants are sensitised to such arcane indicators, particularly around the turn of the year. Holidays and book-closings can make things difficult for more stressed institutions.

While US bonds ended the week unchanged from last week, European and UK bonds have done well, as our performance table (always to be found at the end of the full copy) shows. The softness in global growth is being signalled in both economic data and in commodity market prices. Last week, we talked of how OPEC+ had shown its relative lack of cohesion and how that inability to act together has led to ineffective supply cuts. We said then that demand need not necessarily be weak in order for prices to fall. 

 
However, this week we have seen more oil price falls, continuing the pace of last week. In addition, global industrial metals and agricultural prices have moved down as the chart on the left shows. They are less volatile than energy prices (mainly because energy stores are always relatively low compared to ongoing use) so the lesser decline is still significant.

As COP28 comes to a close this weekend, the deliberations have been neither a help nor a hindrance to asset and commodity prices, nor perhaps should they be. COP28 president (and oil executive) Sultan Al Jaber took the opportunity to swing the debate towards responsible fossil fuel policies. Each of these meetings becomes more embroiled in detail and runs the risk of losing any momentum for meaningful change. Still, ultimately, progress on dealing with emissions will be in the enactment of detailed policy, so perhaps this is good news. The conference is also turning its attention to the loss of the natural world, which many will think is a good refocusing.

Commodity prices are still a higher than they were 2021 but the decline from mid-2022 is clear. In the past 15 years, the biggest demand swing has emanated from China and there are all sorts of signals that the world’s second-largest economy is not providing the growth leadership that the largest economy in the world has given us. Chinese economic data don’t appear so bad and GDP estimates from JP Morgan are running at about a 6% annualised rate. Yet equity prices fell again over at the start of the month, which doesn’t align with signals coming from markets.
 
This week, China’s Politburo met and affirmed a significant fiscal push next year (we write on China’s situation below). There is also an exception to the commodity signal; domestic iron and steel prices are picking up when usually they would face seasonal downward pressure because of year-end inventory run-offs.

Among the policies being swung into action, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced something that looks very much like quantitative easing (QE), or the buying of bonds. This policy can work in different ways but one of its possible implications is that financial market liquidity improves, which can then feed through into rises in risk asset prices.

The lack of foreign equity buyers has generated much comment but the similar lack of domestic equity buyers has also been notable. Probably, therefore, the first indication of a turn in sentiment will come from the equity market itself and then the dynamic could be quite strong.
 
Energy and materials equity and credit sectors have been understandably poor performers in recent days. By market capitalisation, the UK has more than 20% in the combined sectors while Europe has less than 10%. The predominance of such companies in the UK stock market has sent the FTSE 100 to the back of the class in global terms. 

We still have a slightly bigger weighting in financials, and the sector has done quite well amid declining financial pressures. However, UK financials are up about 2% this week, while materials and energy are down almost 2.5%.

Europe is also doing well courtesy of a bounce in luxury goods, which may be a signal of China confidence returning. These stocks were strong performers in the post-lockdown bounce earlier this year.

Both the Nationwide and Halifax (now Lloyds Bank/S&P Global) house price indices have shown a small rise in prices. Next week we get the Rightmove and Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors reports. The fall-back in rate expectations has helped mortgage demand pick up a little, and it will be interesting to see whether this improves the estate agents’ mood.

Next week will be our last full weekly of the year when we will also present our brief outlook for 2024.

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10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?