Latest News from Tatton Investment Management: Market wrestling

10 March 2023, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management Limited is still a young company but we are getting a little older. This year, we are proud to celebrate ten years of serving our clients and are immensely proud of what we have been allowed to achieve for portfolio investors and are grateful for the trust shown in us. 

The company is young but we, the individuals charged with making investment decisions, have to admit to being quite a bit older. Some of us even started before the “Big Bang” of 1987! It has the advantage that the d�j� vu of inflation-affected markets isn’t just a sense, it really is d�j� vu.

For weeks we have been talking of an equity market that is relatively expensive in comparison to bond markets, especially government bond markets. Below is a chart which tracks the dividend yield of the FTSE 100 (calculated from 12-month trailing dividends) together with the market-estimated real return (after inflation has been subtracted) of the 10-year gilt calculated by the BoE. It is reasonable to think of dividend yields as an inflation-adjusted (or real) yield given that companies pay dividends out of profits which are made after inflation-affected input costs.

Importantly, over the long-term, dividend growth will be in line with earnings growth and that is usually in line with nominal economic growth. It will outstrip the growth in retail prices.

If we were to start this chart just five years ago, we would see a decline in dividend yields and a sharp rise in government real yields. One could expect dividend yields to rise to maintain the premium, and that would in the short-term mostly be achieved through lower equity prices – which hurts capital values. But over the period from 1986 to the start of this century, the relationship looks completely different. Dividend returns from stocks were in line with real yields from government bonds, except that equity investors got the growth in the value of the stocks on top. The two periods are very different and, certainly, there are reasons to think that the 20th century relationship could return. While from dividend yield perspective equities are on the expensive side, they are not expensive relative to government bond yields in a wider historical context.
 


Valuation arguments are never the best guide to short-term stock market performance. However, valuations often guide how professional investors position over the shorter term between asset classes. In various discussions this week, we heard market participants telling us how expensive the deem equities and low credit rating bonds (junk bonds) in relation to the current risks to expected earnings and corporate default levels. This backs up the gauges of market sentiment published by researchers like Bank of America which show how equity market bearishness amongst institutional investors has been quite high and for quite a long period.

Morgan Stanley, the US investment bank have noted the discrepancy between institutional investor risk-off positioning and actual market resilience this year. As a result they have – as of Monday - altered their short term view investment view back to bullish (as they did last autumn before the last rally) anticipating stock markets could start to rise despite their longer term bearish outlook. 

They have a point, given many investors are at risk of underperforming their benchmarks because they are weighted towards cash. Being out of the market for an extended period makes those active institutional investors twitchy and so they tend to jump the other way on any sign that market action is not aligning with their expectations - particularly as each (reporting) quarter comes to an end. Our conversations make us also think that being underweight equities is a “crowded” trade. As we head towards the new tax year, there may be a tendency to want to move back to neutral.

But, of course, we should also acknowledge that there are many good reasons for investors to be fearful given profits might face a tough time during the rest of the year, which may eventually undermine the enthusiasm of the cohorts of casual investors who are perhaps not as driven by economic data analysis. We write below about the expectations for rate rises here, in Europe and the US over the next two weeks. Compared to a month ago, most investors expect rates to be quite a bit higher by the summer. Of course this is because economic growth has been more resilient which should help this quarter’s profits to be better than expected. 

Nevertheless, those higher rates will stress some weaker companies and more will default than otherwise. For the broad markets the question then becomes whether this process becomes disruptive for the whole economy, which is when risks shift from being “idiosyncratic” (company specific) to being “systemic”. In this context, the most dangerous times are when banks are on the brink.

The news that Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB), based in California, got itself into difficulties,gave the markets a big wobble this week and might have caused the opposite to what Morgan Stanley were basing their short term change of strategy on, namely a larger number of investors got a fright that the economy may not after all pull through largely unscathed. We note in the article below that the Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress changed his tone from quite hawkish to somewhat more moderate between Tuesday and Wednesday. We can assume that he would have been informed of SVB’s cash call before Thursday’s announcement.

Silicon Valley Bank is part of a group which is large enough to be in the S&P 500 so it isn’t small. The group seems to have been caught up in the crypto-currency travails after its crypto unit, Silvergate, was shut out of the market.  At the same time, the bank itself is not noted for being a large lender so it is not likely to be significant in providing liquidity finance to companies and thus being systemically important for the US economy. 

Even though SVB’s troubles appear entirely idiosyncratic, banks across the board were hit hard this week after a good run this year. Investors will be trying to judge whether banks are still a good thing given that the general rise in rates and yields is known to be beneficial for profits, but the negative yield spread between what they have to pay deposit holders (short maturities) and what they receive for longer term loans is not. If higher overall yields then lead to non-performing loans suddenly ballooning on top this all has the potential to turn a positive stock story into quite the opposite. We have been somewhat surprise by this sudden insight in markets, given the negative yield curve spread has persisted for some months now and so have higher lending costs for businesses. It seems sometimes that many of todays’ younger capital market actors still have to get their heads around the dynamics high yields and higher rates of inflation bring with them.

The Fed’s judgement on this seemingly outsized market reaction will be important as it will undoubtedly affect their views on future rate moves. They have now moved into the pre-meeting quiet period but that only applies to the rate-setting committee so there will be information flowing from the Financial Stability section.

Looking back at previous bouts of rate tightening, they have happened before and one should not over-estimate the immediate impact of such episodes. Equally, this week’s events signal that stress is starting to be revealed – a domino has fallen and this is when others might well get knocked over.

Still, they will also look at another economic news items of this week and note that the jobs market remains astoundingly strong and wonder when the weakness of Californian tech-related entities will actually mean an easing in the labour market.

For the first time in what seems a very long time we have had a week where government bond prices have risen while equity prices have fallen. Equities initially would be supported on the valuation side by the fall in yields (the opposite of what happened last year when yields rose and rose) but the concern that crept in this week when it will be more important if profit forecasts are downgraded because of emerging stresses. Certainly, it is possible that these first cracks in the wider credit markets have increased the systemic risk level this week, and much will depend on the views of the (somewhat unknown) group of risk overweight investors over the coming week. For the moment they seem to continue to be more inclined to hold on to their conviction of inflation beating longer term returns that arise from holding on to equities and look through and beyond the shorter-term pain of stagnating and temporarily falling corporate earnings. We feel the coming weeks could turn out to be quite insightful for us.

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17 October 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?