Latest News from Tatton Investment Management: Market conundrum amid volatile growth

16 June 2023, 05:00pm

This week saw equity markets move higher yet, despite central bank hawkishness. We had another 0.25% rate rise from the European Central Bank (ECB) and, although the US Federal Open markets Committee (FOMC) left rates unchanged, they gave us strong hints of at least another 0.25% hike in July. They also indicated their expectation for rates to stay higher for longer than many think. 

The FOMC’s ‘dots plot’ is published every quarter and shows how the US rate setters see the path of rates unfolding over the coming months and quarters. June’s plot is markedly higher than the committee’s estimates back in March, as per the chart below:
 

 

The backdrop to this change is that the 23 March meeting came in the days immediately following the Silicon Valley Bank demise, when many thought the financial system was close to a dangerous precipice, and that a rash of corporate bankruptcies were just moments away.  

As a consequence, many among the FOMC thought that in order to regain stability in the financial system, rates might have to be lowered before the end of the year. In anticipation of worsening financial conditions, the Federal Reserve (Fed) had additionally already acted by pushing liquidity into the system and even considered giving all depositors a blanket guarantee on their checking accounts.  

We can now see that those actions were effective. They reduced risks in the system, and helped to stabilise confidence in banks and other finance houses. Indeed, now, if one were to look only at the US equity indices, you would think that confidence is brimming.  

On 23 March, the S&P 500 stood at 4,000. It is now above 4,400, 10% higher. The S&P 500’s expected earnings-per-share (on a next-12-month basis) have also risen, by a reasonably substantial 2%, although less than equity prices (Bloomberg calculated that analysts’ estimated earnings-per-share was at $224.60 on 23 March; as of today, Bloomberg calculates it at $228.90). 

There have been rises in US Treasury yields and falls in credit spreads, both of which suggest a rise in confidence about the US economy. However, the economic data suggest a much more mixed picture. On the one hand, consumers remain pretty confident as inflation declines, wage gains start to outpace price rises and there is very little fear of losing their job. On the other hand, companies are not so sure and are no longer hiring as much and nor increasing wages as quickly. Indeed, the pace of hiring seems to have slowed significantly in the past three months, and paid overtime has slumped, according to both government-sourced data and employment agencies such as Indeed. Also, almost all sectors are now affected, not just the IT sector. 

Interestingly, business confidence survey data is swinging quite sharply. For example, the New York State purchasing manager index swung from May’s -31.8 to June’s +6.6, a change of over 38 points. Over the last six months the index has swung more than 30 points month-on-month on average. The average pre-pandemic change was less than 10 points. 

Outside the US, the economic picture is also mixed. The UK may be skirting recession rather than plunging and for similar reasons to the US – consumers feel confident that earned income is rising enough to allow them to continue to spend. Germany is in recession but it is mild and the decreasing demand is centred on businesses rather than consumers. 

But the west’s continued growth is not assured, precisely because our central banks still have more work to do to quell second-round inflation pressures from the self-enforcing dynamics of wage rises. The Fed and the ECB told us that this week, and unlike the Fed, the Bank of England (BoE) will most certainly raise UK rates next week. Yet, as we said earlier, markets appear to be behaving as if growth is set to rise sharply, despite institutional investor sentiment surveys showing only a little improvement in confidence.  

It may be that a combination of circumstances has increased the pool of money available to be invested. While institutional investors are cautious on growth drivers, the increase in cash rates has stabilised savings ratios. People are spending but they also appear to be saving out of their rising incomes. 

One interesting thought comes from Andrew Hunt Economics. Perhaps the March turbulence in the US financial system has created a boost to financial market liquidity. He thinks that the shift of deposits away from regional banks has left the larger banks with a conundrum about what to do with their increased deposits. The lending surveys tell us that banks wish to be cautious lenders, and that real economy borrowers are few and far between. However, the money may have found its way out to financial borrowers – such as hedge funds – that have decided to ride the up wave and fuel the markets with their buy orders. 

It is very difficult to verify such a theory. However, we noted how expensive equity markets had become in May and, since then, it has become more extreme. The S&P 500 is now 28% more expensive than our historical model of earnings and yields would suggest, a level that has not occurred in over 20 years. Such an optimistic level is only justifiable if we are moving into a significantly higher real growth and inflation environment, as was the case during the second half of the 20th century. One would have to think that central banks will give up on constraining inflation to their targets through higher rates in the medium term, a judgement which we think is way too early to make now. 

While of course, we welcome the rise in global markets, we think this ‘pricing for perfection’ will leave markets highly vulnerable to any adverse data points. In our view, investors would be well advised to search for quality in what they buy and exercise a little caution rather than chasing the broad equity markets higher. 

Against this optimistic outlook, and few signs of meaningful economic slowing, western central banks are raising rates – however, that’s not the case in Asia. Today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained the easy policy regime. The yen weakened to the year’s weakest point of Y141.5 against the USD. This comes after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut policy rates midweek. China’s easing of policy is both monetary and fiscal, with the authorities promising to bring in as yet undefined measures to help the ailing property market. The PBoC also hinted at measures to push funds into the domestic equity markets. Chinese shares got a bit of a boost and ended the week as one of the better markets after a period of underperformance. We will discuss China in more detail next week. 

Back home, European gas prices rose quite sharply after the Netherlands announced the closure of the North Sea’s largest gas field. Still gas prices have been falling through this year and the rise is minor so far. European equities remained positive but this turn bears watching. We cover oil demand in a separate article below. 

Last, we returning to our own central bank, the BoE. After wage rises were shown earlier this week to be rising much more sharply than elsewhere, a rise in base rates is again imminent. Long bond yields fell back a bit from midweek highs, but are still now among the highest in developed countries. Against this, sterling is rising, which perhaps signals non-UK investors see those yields as attractive and staying high for longer than elsewhere.  

For UK households with mortgage debts to service, it certainly is bad news and, while unlikely to lead to a UK property market crash, it will start to curtail disposable incomes, which will inevitably slow the still-buoyant demand for services, which is precisely what the BoE is aiming for to bring inflation under control. A self-regulating dynamic then, allowing the BoE to step off the brakes as soon as demand dwindles. Alas, all this happens with considerable time lags which are fiendishly hard to project and therefore very easy to get wrong. We do not envy the task in hand for central bankers at the moment. 

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New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?