Latest News from Tatton Investment Management: Bonds are back
18 August 2023, 05:00pm
Nevertheless, this week has seen a downturn since our World equity index in the chart above reached its high point at the end of July. Many commentators have pointed to the rise in global bond yields as a big driver of the reverse in sentiment, or at least as the underlying cause of this technical correction on the basis of a renewed re-rating of equities on the back of higher bond yields. The US 10-year bond yield has risen to a 4.3% high, higher than at any point going back to July 2008. The UK 10 year gilt yield has risen to 4.7%, the highest since June 2008.
Therefore, what has changed is the ‘real’ yields, or what is left of a nominal yield of e.g., the 10 year 4.3% after subtracting the expected rate of inflation. These have become more positive after spending many months (even years) near or below zero. While the topic may sound a little niche to many readers, the level of real yields does matter and so in the first of our two articles this week, we look at the recent movements in real yields and currencies, especially as reflected in the exchange rate of sterling (in the second article, we draw some potential inferences from the weakening Russian rouble while oil prices have moved a little higher).
Rising long-term real yields can be associated with strong growth. The rationale is that an economy that is productive and expanding will provide lots of opportunity, and that will mean companies wanting more capital in order to take advantage of the opportunity – demand for capital that in turn drives up the cost of capital. One can possibly see some evidence of a stronger demand for capital in the US, where bond issuance has increased after a slowdown through last year. At the same time, the US government has stepped up its borrowing programme following the debt ceiling problems earlier this year.
However, this increase in issuance has arrived after institutional investors had already bought a lot of bonds in the first quarter of the year in the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would shortly begin to ease monetary policy, therefore locking in what was seen as rates as high as they would probably get during this cycle.
Indeed, since the US regional bank wobbles in March, many investors have thought that an easing of policy was imminent. ‘Imminent’ is only a short period and we are now quite a long way on from there. The release of the minutes from July’s Federal Open Markets Committee meeting this week made it clear that, while they may not tighten for much longer, the next move would probably still be to raise interest rates.
Oddly, the short rates (i.e., on cash) have hardly budged since that July meeting, perhaps not surprising because not much has really changed. Rather, the unwinding of over-extended expectations of what and when the first rate cuts may come after the last rate rise seems to be at play. This rise in US real yields has come at a point when US economic data suggests ever more strongly, reasonable and persistent growth – rather than looming recession which may force rate cuts. That has shifted longer yields to a more normal relationship with shorter rates (although the yield curve which plots this relationship along the maturity band is still inverted) and that in turn has undermined the basis for expensive equity valuations. The longer duration tech stocks in the NASDAQ have been harder hit than most (although the mega-cap ‘Magnificent Seven’ are still holding up, relatively).
So, capital markets appear to be undergoing a rather technical shift, based on the described re-rating on the back of higher-for-longer bond yield expectations, making recently extended expectations untenable, even if the earnings outlook has marginally improved. Given that August is a month with low trading volumes, it could continue to be negative, especially if the momentum trading funds start to add to the flows. However, a little bit of valuation adjustment would be a good thing in the medium term, as it would lower the recent market nervousness as expressed in the continuous up and down since the start of the year.
Turning to the situation at home, at first glance, this week’s UK data was unhelpful. The sharp rise in wages (+8.2% annually when including bonuses, using the rolling three-month averages) looked awfully inflationary, given it is not underpinned by similar levels of productivity improvements. However, just as in the US bond market, the UK inflation expectations component hardly shifted. The employment component in the data showed some unexpected weakness and this is probably a better indicator of the current situation because it is more indicative of what lies ahead, rather than the rise itself, which reflects the past. Changes in wages are very historical whereas jobs are timelier (even if the whole data set is not a good indicator of current activity). The retail sales data showed weakness which may have been related to wet summer weather but, equally, was in line with recent months when adjusted for inflation.
The two-year rate is about 0.4% below the peak of early July (although it is admittedly still up about 0.3% on the week) while the 10-year rate has regained its early July level. However, UK yields at all levels may be peaking given that financial conditions are tighter here than in the US and so the backdrop to rising UK yields is arguably less positive than across the Atlantic. The US real yield levels may be sustainable given the investment boost follow-through of the Biden fiscal packages, but there is no comparable fiscal stimulus here. While the UK fiscal deficit is nevertheless set to expand because of the rising interest rate burden, the medium-term fiscal outlook is quite contractionary or we might even call it austere. That means relatively less issuance and relatively less growth, a situation which may prove to be the healthier policy choice but one which argues for lower bond yields.
UK equities have been hurt both in absolute and relative terms by the outsized rise in yields, but without the US perspective of an improving growth picture - so an end to this difficult situation would be welcome.
As we said earlier, the US rise in yields is at least partly a reflection of an economy which has resilient drivers of growth. So far, despite wobbles, households and businesses have seen rises in income which are not much different to current interest rates. However, some of that resilience may be a result of overconfidence. Markets currently reflect that positivity and it is possible we could see consumer and business confidence also decline if markets wobble more than currently. If that were to happen, there is the risk the recent virtuous circle environment of resilient growth turns into a vicious circle where a fall in financial risk appetite provokes a fall in economic activity. This ‘wealth effect’ has happened before, most notably in the early part of this millennium. It remains an outside probability, but one which should warn us about being complacent.
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17 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble
16 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term
13 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar
12 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions
9 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn
6 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey
2 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home
28 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective
26 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear
24 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'
17 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine
10 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?
3 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week
27 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?
20 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018
14 January 2020, 12:00am
13 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good
8 January 2020, 12:00am
Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us
6 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card
23 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!
16 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook
8 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?
2 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets
25 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check
18 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music
11 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat
11 November 2019, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019
4 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind
28 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning
21 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue
17 October 2019, 12:00am
17 October 2019, 12:00am
Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)
14 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
7 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading
30 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength
23 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re
16 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
9 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...
2 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'
27 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?
19 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets
11 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again
5 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady
29 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick
22 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly
15 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see
8 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs
1 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?
24 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’
17 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages
10 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?
3 June 2019, 12:00am
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Appointment by Frenkel Topping
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019
3 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings
27 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer
20 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?
13 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage
7 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations
29 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice
23 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?
16 April 2019, 12:00am
Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019
15 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving
8 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market
1 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end
25 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions
18 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces
11 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed
4 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay
25 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?
18 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes
15 November 2018, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018
15 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off
1 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?
27 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new
7 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead
31 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the worldâ€
24 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics
17 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost
10 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he
3 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?
27 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?
20 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?
13 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?
6 July 2018, 12:00am
Notice of Annual General Meeting
6 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot
29 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?
27 June 2018, 12:00am
Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018
22 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery
15 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises
8 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium
1 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril
25 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!
18 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?
11 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?
4 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?
27 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?
20 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that
29 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter
23 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!
16 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?
9 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth
2 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits
23 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?
16 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment
9 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac
6 February 2018, 12:00am
Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment
2 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!
26 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises
19 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion
12 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells
5 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off
15 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock
8 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin
5 December 2017, 12:00am
Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017
1 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected
24 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?
17 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?
10 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets
3 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate
27 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season
13 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be
6 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news
29 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements
22 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft
15 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?
8 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes
1 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news
25 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?
18 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers
11 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?
4 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling
28 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’
21 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed
14 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check
7 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe
23 June 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?