Latest News from Tatton Investment Management: Bond yield volatility has markets guessing
20 October 2023, 05:00pm
For example, Goldman Sachs researchers wrote: “We are exiting the abnormal era of cheap capital, a focus for growth and a reach for yield. That path to normalization will be (has been) bumpy. It will come with false bottoms and fake rallies. Stil, Covid-period ‘cash and dry powder’ remains available. The delayed effects of that saving creation has been felt in the resilience of the consumer and consumption habits... for how long that lasts is one big question with increasing signs of belt tightening.”
We write about this and other aspects in a separate article about US savings rates below.
Part of our job is to try to find some indications of how the near-future might look. To do that we look back to find other periods which share similarities in some way. Of course, turbulent times are the most fully recorded, so there is a tendency to compare now to the most difficult situations. Professor Niall Ferguson is a well-read and known historian and his 15 October article in The Times drew some very daunting parallels with the 1970s and the 1930s. On reading the article, investors would and should now want to be paid more of a premium than before for locking up their money for fixed time periods.
But history cannot be a science because there are just too few comparable periods and our recording is biased; we remember less well the times when things looked horrible but then nothing happened. Moreover, these periods are not ‘homogenous’ – only certain aspects are similar. So, Professor Ferguson’s words should not be treated as a prophecy, but as a statement of downside potential and a spur for action. And the greatest urgency for our leaders is to try to make sure we learn from history, so the mistakes of the past are not repeated. Biden, Scholz and Sunak are to be commended for their diplomatic visits to the troubled areas.
Still, investors now want more reward for any new investment beyond cash. What’s been interesting in the past weeks is that the biggest relative change in required risk premium (that incentive of extra expected return) has been in the assets generally described as the least risky – government bonds. The 10-year US Treasury yield traded at 4.992% on Thursday. Some of this rise is attributable to rising inflation fears although (oddly, given the oil price rises) not in the near-term – the fears seem to be more visible in five years’ time.
It seems that investors hear the words ‘risk-free asset’, but perceive long-term US Treasuries bonds as one of the riskiest of defensive assets, and perhaps it’s not just about the losses these securities inflicted on holders in 2022. The last few days have been particularly instructive. Gold has rallied quite hard, up 8.5% since the Hamas terrorist attack. Usually, gold price movements move quite closely with inflation-linked bond price movements. This time they are moving in opposite directions.
US investors are not the only holders of risky US assets, of course. Oil producers and manufacturers of goods earn lots of US dollars and generally ‘store’ a good proportion of the proceeds in US dollar financial assets. However, in the current situation, they might find their ability to liquidate those assets without the risk of short-term losses being substantially constrained.
In terms of incentives for other external holders of US financial assets, the US policy of imposing financial sanctions may well be starting to rebound. Earlier this week, US data showed that China has been disinvesting from US dollar assets since mid-summer. Now, the Middle East oil producers may be doing the same, and putting the proceeds into the safe haven asset they have trusted for even longer than US bonds.
In our long-term measure, gold has been relatively expensive to bonds for some time but our measure depends on the view that you can sell the asset and get your money with equal ease, and it may well be that some people don’t believe them to be equal now. (Interestingly, crypto currencies do not seem to be benefitting nearly as much, despite this being an environment that seems made for them).
The case is being made by some commentators that US bonds are being hurt by the possibility of a worsening in the US fiscal deficit, amid the conflicts in Israel and Ukraine, while the rise in interest cost is also a factor. However, at the moment, they are trying to ration the volume of new borrowing. Neither side of the political divide is proposing emergency spending. As we know from our experience here, markets take serious fright more when politicians feel fiscal discipline is not necessary.
So the shift upwards in bond risk premia may just be about bonds. While non-US investors have exposure to equities, it is significantly less important. But neither should we be complacent either. We are in the full spate of third quarter earnings announcements which are unsurprisingly full of positive surprises, albeit with some negatives (such as Tesla this week). Still, the theme of larger companies holding up but smaller enterprises being stressed keeps coming through.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell gave an even-handed assessment of monetary policy this week and acknowledged that the rise in long bond yields was tightening policy without the Fed having to change anything. The markets took that as indicating interest rates were not likely to go any higher than one more 0.25% rise. We would note that one-year yields are still at the same level as the end of June, not brilliant since it means that the expected first round of rate cuts has moved out by the same amount of time, but this is not catastrophic either.
The danger for investment assets is that the further tightening of financial conditions leads to a downswing in earnings expectations. To some degree, this has already happened in smaller firms’ estimates but it has not particularly hit the larger ones. Nevertheless, they are not immune either as we saw around the end of last year. And, as we explain in the article below, US households have been able to keep spending partly because their financial assets have done fairly well. A fall in equity prices therefore has the potential to create a slowing in spending, rather than slowing spending causing a fall in equity prices.
Credit spreads as indicators of recession fears rose in the derivatives markets but less so in the cash traded actual bond markets, something which tends to indicate precautionary hedging but not disinvestment. At the same time, the fall in equity prices this week wiped out the gains from earlier in the month but, as yet they are not signaling a change in investor belief in earnings growth.
Meanwhile, the yield moves in Europe have been notably less than in the US. Growth is weaker, which is not great for assets but keeps a lid on yields to a large degree. The key risk remains around gas and electricity prices, which currently are reasonably well behaved. UK gilts were hit harder this week, which will hurt our softening economy further, although mortgage providers are doing their best to hold fixed rates from going much higher.
To sum up, it may be reasonable to draw as a conclusion from the raging debate about the reasons of the term premium moving bond yields that this inflation fighting tightening cycle may have indeed reached its nadir. Therefore, the emerging crunch point is whether the higher rates and yields are slowing activity just enough to declare victory over inflation (so we get away with an economic soft landing over the coming months), or whether the additional dynamics introduced by the ‘collateral damage’ of the high yield environment leads to an acceleration in the slowdown – or even possibly trigger a credit default cycle – all of which causes central bank tightening to turn into a policy error outcome that leads to a hard landing recession.
We continue to watch credit spreads and stories related to default stress, which have increased but not to worrisome levels. Market liquidity remains good and intraday volatility well within the usual boundaries. This can all change quickly, but currently give little reason for concern, but equally the conditions are not tempting us to declare and position investor portfolios for one outcome or the other.
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11 May 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Most welcome, if feeble, signs of pulling together
4 May 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Opening-up will be slower than locking down
27 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: V or U-shaped recovery scenarios - the jury is out
20 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Lifting lockdown remains a delicate balancing act
20 April 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets between hope and despair
15 April 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Is now the time to invest?
13 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide
6 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?
30 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one
24 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do
23 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession
19 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets
18 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?
17 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble
16 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term
13 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar
12 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions
9 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn
6 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey
2 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home
28 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective
26 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear
24 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'
17 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine
10 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?
3 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week
27 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?
20 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018
14 January 2020, 12:00am
13 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good
8 January 2020, 12:00am
Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us
6 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card
23 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!
16 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook
8 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?
2 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets
25 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check
18 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music
11 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat
11 November 2019, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019
4 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind
28 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning
21 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue
17 October 2019, 12:00am
17 October 2019, 12:00am
Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)
14 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
7 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading
30 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength
23 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re
16 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
9 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...
2 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'
27 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?
19 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets
11 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again
5 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady
29 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick
22 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly
15 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see
8 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs
1 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?
24 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’
17 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages
10 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?
3 June 2019, 12:00am
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Appointment by Frenkel Topping
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019
3 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings
27 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer
20 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?
13 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage
7 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations
29 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice
23 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?
16 April 2019, 12:00am
Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019
15 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving
8 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market
1 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end
25 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions
18 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces
11 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed
4 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay
25 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?
18 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes
15 November 2018, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018
15 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off
1 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?
27 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new
7 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead
31 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the worldâ€
24 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics
17 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost
10 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he
3 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?
27 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?
20 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?
13 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?
6 July 2018, 12:00am
Notice of Annual General Meeting
6 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot
29 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?
27 June 2018, 12:00am
Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018
22 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery
15 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises
8 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium
1 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril
25 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!
18 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?
11 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?
4 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?
27 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?
20 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that
29 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter
23 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!
16 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?
9 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth
2 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits
23 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?
16 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment
9 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac
6 February 2018, 12:00am
Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment
2 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!
26 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises
19 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion
12 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells
5 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off
15 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock
8 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin
5 December 2017, 12:00am
Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017
1 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected
24 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?
17 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?
10 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets
3 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate
27 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season
13 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be
6 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news
29 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements
22 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft
15 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?
8 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes
1 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news
25 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?
18 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers
11 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?
4 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling
28 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’
21 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed
14 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check
7 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe
23 June 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?