Latest News from Tatton Investment Management: A glass half-full half year
30 June 2023, 12:00am
Half-way through 2023 and, all in all, things have been fair-to-middling for markets. We’ll have a more detailed run-through of asset class performances in next week’s Weekly, but an assessment of the changing economic and markets landscape over the quarter seem appropriate for this week’s edition.
This second quarter ends amid positive sentiment towards global risk assets (UK assets have not fared quite as well), a surprising turnaround given it started with black clouds on the horizon, following March’s US regional bank crisis. March had many investors thinking credit would tighten as banks would surely be scared to run out of money themselves. Looking back now, the evidence seems to be that a shift of client deposits to larger banks, alongside US Federal Reserve (Fed) actions, produced an effective easing. Not only did the Fed push liquidity into the system, but it also reduced risks for investors by expanding its deposit insurance cover terms. Some would say that, implicitly, the Fed told us that its response to possible financial system issues is to be swift and generous. So, if something looks like breaking, the Fed will step in to stop people getting hurt.
Put in those terms, of course no central banker would agree this was a reasonable assertion and reaffirm that they are undeterred in their determination to put the inflation genie firmly back in its bottle, even if this results in pain in some parts of the economy. However, markets no longer seem to wholly believe that to be the case, so during the quarter we have seen the relationship between bonds and equities change from how it was over 2022 and Q1 of 2023.
Back then, falls in bond prices (associated with expectations of rising short-term interest rates) went hand-in-hand with equity price falls, suggesting the process would end in tears for the economy. This quarter saw bond prices still under pressure (as yields rose again) but equity prices generally doing better regardless.
One reasonable explanation is that, globally, equity analysts have been raising their forecasts for company profits for the next 12 months through the course of this quarter. While the results from Q1 were better than initially expected, the track of upgrades was consistently stronger through the quarter. If the global economy was in a parlous state, this just would not have happened.
Somewhat contradictory, manufacturing sentiment (i.e., the outlook from businesses rather than the analysts covering them), has continued to show looming recession. This has been particularly evident in Europe, despite the easing of energy price pressures. However, service business sentiment has indicated reasonably solid growth, albeit most regional indices in aggregate have still shown a relative decline.
The overall composite indicators are more heavily weighted towards services and show that the global economy has been resilient. It also shows the resilience has been widespread as the chart below reflects, in which 50 marks the demarcation between growth and contraction
June’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data does show a downturn, however. Services are gradually turning less positive and manufacturing more negative. Europe has been notable for quite a sharp decline across the board. China’s June reading is estimated to slide back to about 52.8 which would probably mean a World Composite PMI reading of about 52.7.
We have mentioned before that markets have responded well to more earnings positivity from analysts, but the biggest change has been in their reaction to valuations. Developed world equity indices have doubled up on rising underlying profit expectations with rises in the price-to-earnings multiples applied on top of those earnings.
This sign of increased investor optimism may perhaps be lack of pessimism, a sense that the downside is protected, following the experience in the aftermath of the US banking crisis. The European Central Bank (ECB) held its annual symposium in Portugal this week and leading central bankers from across the world spoke. The tone ranged from mild to bloody-clawed hawkishness. Bond yields duly reacted and moved higher, yet equities gave the event a ‘whatever’ shrug.
Part of that mood may be coming from the disjunct between ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ economic data. Hard data is derived from actual activity – such as jobs numbers, retail sales or durable goods orders. Soft data (like the PMI sentiment gauges above) is based on surveys of people’s perceptions. The continued resilience of the hard data over PMI readings (manufacturing PMIs have been below 50 for a year now) is an indication that sentiment can be overly pessimistic, especially in times of changing circumstances.
However, that resilience also means core inflation (taking out food and energy) is not coming down noticeably now. Perhaps investors believe that the impacts of inflation may be less problematic for the financial and economic system than previously feared. Perhaps the central banks also think so. They certainly have not been as hawkish as their rhetoric. For example, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last year that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wanted US unemployment to rise to 4.5%. Since then, joblessness has moved up only 0.1% to 3.7%. In the UK, unemployment seems locked at 3.8% while in the Eurozone it has declined from 2022’s start rate of 7% to May 2023’s 6.5%.
The words emanating from the ECB’s meeting in Sintra convinced money markets to factor in more short-term rate rises this week. The Fed is expected to get to 5.5% (+1%) by September, and the Bank of England (BoE) to 6.25% (+1.25%) by March next year. The ECB’s hawkishness seems to be refocusing on the pace of quantitative tightening however, rather than raising rates, which is an interesting move. This approach could be followed by the Fed. A faster decline in its balance sheet would pose some questions for risk assets, given it would be likely to push long-term yields higher once more, which as we know should put equity valuations under downward pressure.
The other intriguing aspect of this quarter has been the lack of corporate bankruptcies and default. In the US, following Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, investors were on the lookout for signs of default contagion. Although there were a few, most would say that it did not become a problem.
In the UK, the same could have been said right up until the news this week concerning Thames Water.
The 2021 Bulb bankruptcy was an example of how a utility company can be caught between costs, competition and price caps. Given the circumstances, there was little made of the episode despite its size. Thames Water is potentially of a different order. Few people in London get their water services from another supplier. The perceptions of (reckless) behaviour of private equity actors in the story will be important, especially in relation to the state’s infrastructure funding.
Perhaps most important will be the impacts on the current equity holders, which are generally pension funds. The company was privately held but that doesn’t mean it won’t cause contagion. While the pressure that UK pension funds faced during last October’s index-linked gilt crisis may be seen as a different type of problem, many funds have large exposures to other infrastructure-related assets. It is possible this story will go on for some time and have surprising consequences. In itself, the Thames Water situation is not likely to precipitate a crisis. Nevertheless, large debtors with problems are things we should watch closely, as much perhaps as hitherto deemed ultra-safe infrastructure investments.
The heat of June is forecast to give way to a cooler July in Europe. We hope the relative calm experienced by equity markets in June will carry on regardless of the weather.
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New article from Tatton Investment Management: Opening-up will be slower than locking down
27 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: V or U-shaped recovery scenarios - the jury is out
20 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Lifting lockdown remains a delicate balancing act
20 April 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets between hope and despair
15 April 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Is now the time to invest?
13 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide
6 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?
30 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one
24 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do
23 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession
19 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets
18 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?
17 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble
16 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term
13 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar
12 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions
9 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn
6 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey
2 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home
28 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective
26 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear
24 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'
17 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine
10 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?
3 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week
27 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?
20 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018
14 January 2020, 12:00am
13 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good
8 January 2020, 12:00am
Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us
6 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card
23 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!
16 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook
8 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?
2 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets
25 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check
18 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music
11 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat
11 November 2019, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019
4 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind
28 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning
21 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue
17 October 2019, 12:00am
17 October 2019, 12:00am
Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)
14 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
7 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading
30 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength
23 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re
16 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
9 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...
2 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'
27 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?
19 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets
11 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again
5 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady
29 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick
22 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly
15 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see
8 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs
1 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?
24 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’
17 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages
10 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?
3 June 2019, 12:00am
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Appointment by Frenkel Topping
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019
3 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings
27 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer
20 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?
13 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage
7 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations
29 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice
23 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?
16 April 2019, 12:00am
Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019
15 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving
8 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market
1 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end
25 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions
18 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces
11 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed
4 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay
25 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?
18 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes
15 November 2018, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018
15 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off
1 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?
27 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new
7 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead
31 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the worldâ€
24 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics
17 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost
10 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he
3 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?
27 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?
20 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?
13 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?
6 July 2018, 12:00am
Notice of Annual General Meeting
6 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot
29 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?
27 June 2018, 12:00am
Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018
22 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery
15 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises
8 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium
1 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril
25 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!
18 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?
11 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?
4 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?
27 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?
20 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that
29 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter
23 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!
16 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?
9 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth
2 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits
23 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?
16 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment
9 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac
6 February 2018, 12:00am
Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment
2 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!
26 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises
19 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion
12 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells
5 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off
15 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock
8 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin
5 December 2017, 12:00am
Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017
1 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected
24 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?
17 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?
10 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets
3 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate
27 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season
13 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be
6 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news
29 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements
22 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft
15 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?
8 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes
1 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news
25 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?
18 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers
11 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?
4 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling
28 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’
21 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed
14 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check
7 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe
23 June 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?