New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

13 October 2017, 12:00am

While the general public struggled with lack of political progress around the world, most western stock markets reached new highs. Fitting that this happened as we passed the 10th anniversary of the pre-GFC (global financial crisis) stock market highs.

On the political side, it was frustrating to observe that the two sides of the Brexit negotiations still appear to be focusing on their differences, rather than trying to establish coming ground in order to move forward. Similarly, in Spain, the Catalonian regional government and the Spanish government in Madrid exchanged tit-for-tat threats, rather than following the explicit wish of their population to engage in talks to find a better solution. For the time being, the Catalans seem to want to avoid having their very own ‘Brexit moment’, and so the optimists will be hoping for de-escalation over the coming weeks. Over in the US, president Trump’s keenness to reverse as much of Obama’s reconciliation deal with Iran – as well as his Affordable Care Act (ACA/Obamacare) – is equally frustrating.

For investors, it is therefore more uplifting to focus on the world of the actual economy, and the companies whose shares we invest in. Against the aforementioned historical and present stock highs, it is worth reflecting on both, and exploring what they tell us about the likely future course.

More cautious investors were keen to focus on the 10th anniversary of the previous market peaks for both the S&P500 and DOW Industrials. Back then, the Dow hit a record high of 14,000 and President George Bush Jr was on TV stating the US had a “vibrant economy”. As we now know, that peak was followed by a fall of more than 50%, as the financial crisis later gripped the world.

Those who invested into a multi-asset portfolio at this historic stock market peak would have found bonds and gold to be the best immediate counterweights to their stock market losses, while, over the years since then, stocks themselves made such a vigorous comeback that they have beaten bond returns, and will soon leave gold behind as well.

Some commentators to last week’s high point and anniversary cited statements from central bankers, like the US Fed’s Williams, cautioning that they “don’t want there to be any excesses in financial markets” as reasons to worry, given the strong market performances over the past few years. Others point to financial ratios like high Price-to-earnings (PE) and Price-to-sales (currently 2.2x) coming within 4% of the March 2000 peak.

This may have led to the apparent rise in the S&P500 SKEW Index (a measure of tail risk or potential risk in financial markets), amid expectations of some kind of market pullback.

But are these fears justified?

We believe there are good reasons to be more optimistic, and expect further gains in asset prices. Admittedly, these might be more muted relative to previous stronger years, when central banks’ QE programs provided additional support.

Those reasons are twofold:

  • Synchronised and fairly resilient global economic fundamentals
  • Further growth in corporate earnings

We note that economic activity levels during Q3 have remained robust, with strong forward-looking Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) prints and the US ISM (manufacturing) index reaching its highest level since 2004.

Additionally, we had upgrades to global growth expectations from the OECD in September and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week. The OECD projects that world GDP will grow 3.5% in 2017 and a quicker 3.7% in 2018. It would seem that the current upturn in momentum has “become more synchronised across countries” as “investment, employment and trade expanded”.

The IMF said that the world economy is enjoying the broadest and fastest rate of growth since 2010, on the back of rising business investment (!), which is improving longer-term economic prospects. The IMF broadly agrees with the OECD’s projections and expects global GDP to expand a stronger 3.76% in 2017 (+0.4pp) and another 3.7% in 2018.

These expected rates of growth are much stronger than those seen earlier this decade, allowing the world to move back to the 30-year longer-term average. Better global growth prospects are supported by continued low inflation across the world and low interest rates. The winding down of fiscal austerity should additionally help boost household incomes.

These are powerful tailwinds for the prospect of improving corporate earnings, which form the ultimate foundation for share valuations and thus sustainable stock market levels. 2017 has so far been a good year for company profits. Q1 in the US delivered double-digit annual earnings growth of 14% and another 11% in Q2, but earnings growth was even stronger in Europe with an annual rise of 25% in Q1 and 14% in Q2.

Compared to these past results, consensus projections for Q3 in the US have more than halved over the past six months, from 9% at the beginning of the quarter to just 2.8% for the S&P500, and 12% to 6% for Europe. Ironically, these reductions actually lower the hurdle rate for companies, and make it easier to deliver positive earnings surprises.

For Europe, in 2018, consensus expectations predict just 8-12% EPS growth. This is the lowest hurdle rate for companies since 1990. It would seem that beating the current consensus might not prove to be that difficult.

At a sector level, financials (banks) should continue to see earnings improvements on the back of rising credit growth and higher bond yields, which helps expand Net Interest Margins (the measure of profits at banks). Additionally, the earnings base itself for the financial sector still looks low relative to history.

The recent rebound in commodity prices during Q3 could likely provide support to the earnings of the Energy and Mining sectors. Some analysts believe that the Energy sector in particular could move higher, given fairly depressed relative share price performances, and with oil moving near the top of the current higher range. Like the US, financials and commodities in Europe appear to be driving a large bulk of EPS growth in 2017. But, growth looks more balanced next year across multiple sectors. Industrials, Staples, IT and Telecoms are all predicted to post double-digit EPS expansion in 2018.

In a historical context, the EPS base of the Eurozone is still some 24% below the peak reached during the last cycle, according to JP Morgan, meaning Europe offers greater upside potential relative to the US. On the downside, a stronger Euro could act as a headwind, especially for exporters.

If the 2018 Eurozone GDP growth forecast of around 2% materialises, then investors could see double-digit full year EPS growth. JP Morgan estimate that across Europe the leverage between real GDP growth and nominal EPS growth rate is 7:1. We think this helps support our positive stance on European equities.

That is not to say we are negative on US equities, particularly given the fact that, on current estimates, analysts appear to be only pricing in around a 60% chance of tax reform, where each 5% cut in taxes equates to an EPS boost of $5 per share. There is the chance that the recent US hurricanes have a negative impact on profits, but, given the scale of earnings downgrades, it seems that this effect has already been priced in to estimates (or more!).

The combination of a stronger, more synchronised global economy (UK notwithstanding) and more stable commodity prices should allow for improved corporate pricing power. Inflation readings appear to have hit an inflection point and are possibly now on an upwards trend. Correspondingly, Eurozone selling price expectations on consumer goods have recently reached new highs. JP Morgan estimate that the spread between output prices and wage costs is trending higher, which has positive implications for both sales and profits growth.

We also note that sales growth in the US is tracking near its 5-year high, and firms are increasingly able to pass those revenues to the bottom line. This is possible through increased productivity from business investment measures, given the continued low cost of capital and scarcity of qualified labour.

Those worried that current elevated levels of economic growth are unsustainable (which would make markets vulnerable to sell offs) should be aware that, historically, from the point at which the ISM index hits a reading of 60, stocks rise 70% of the time in the following three and six months.

Amidst the political frustrations, much investor focus will, over the coming three weeks, be on the Q3 corporate results announcements. While we expect certain sectors and companies to report a hurricane related slump in profits, with the so-much-lower hurdle rate, the inevitable positive earnings surprises could act as a positive catalyst that drives further upward momentum in equities as we head into 2018.

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New article from Tatton Investment Management: Support balances increasing strains - for how long?

22 June 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Equity valuations follow bond valuations' lead

15 June 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets suffer altitude sickness

8 June 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are enjoying an uncomfortably benign pandemic

1 June 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Optimistic markets despite second wave lockdown threa

26 May 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Just as the sun comes out, clouds appear in the East

22 May 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management

18 May 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Us-China cold war: Threat or blessing?

11 May 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Most welcome, if feeble, signs of pulling together

4 May 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Opening-up will be slower than locking down

27 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V or U-shaped recovery scenarios - the jury is out

20 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Lifting lockdown remains a delicate balancing act

20 April 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets between hope and despair

15 April 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Is now the time to invest?

13 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide

6 April 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?

30 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one

24 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do

23 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession

19 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets

18 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?

17 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble

16 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term

13 March 2020, 12:00am

New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar

12 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions

9 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn

6 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey

2 March 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home

28 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective

26 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear

24 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'

17 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine

10 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?

3 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020, 12:00am

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020, 12:00am

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?