latest news from Tatton Investment Management: Stick to the plan

22 March 2024, 05:00pm

The northern hemisphere has now entered the brighter half of the year, the days getting longer, lighter and warmer. Financial markets are also brightening. This week has been good across the global board for equities and bonds. 

The most obvious reason for the positivity (apart from the season) is that most of the world’s central banks are in a giving mood. Meetings were held here in the UK, and in the US, Japan, Switzerland and many other nations. The majority left rates unchanged but most indicated that rates are set to fall in the next few months. 

Ahead of the Bank of England’s Thursday meeting, traders were already pricing interest rate futures on the basis (they have ‘discounted’) that rate cuts would begin in in the late summer. Following the meeting, the traders brought forward the first cut to May or June. The reason was the dovish Governor Bailey, who told us in his press conference and in a Financial Times interview that “monetary policy has done its job”. In this case, he means that the Monetary Policy Committee has had a restrictive policy to combat inflation and that “global shocks are unwinding and we are not seeing a lot of sticky persistence [in inflation] coming through at the moment”.

That allows them to pursue a less restrictive policy. Indeed, it ought to mean that they can move interest rates into line with economic activity. That probably means (in our calculation) rates of about 3.0% to 3.5% in around 18 months. Markets currently discount rates settling at 3.5% in 24 months’ time.

On the UK’s Monetary Policy Committee, the hawkish “external” members Mann and Haskel, stopped asking for more rate rises, while the more dovish external member, Dhingra, continued to ask for a rate cut. The internal Bank of England (BoE) members remained voters for no change but clearly the plan is that rate cuts will ensue as long as the growth and inflation data remain low.

Indeed, the speed with which inflation has declined suggests that inflationary behaviour has dissipated significantly. If businesses and consumers are faced with price rises, they buy less stuff. Encouragingly, retail sales data for February showed a slight rise in volume numbers of 0.2% from January. That was stronger than expected, but the consumer price inflation data was lower than expected. All in all, overall money being spent is rising slowly, rather than rapidly.

The BoE’s wait-and-see approach is coming to fruition. The hawks wanted higher rates, but if they had their way, we would have had a sharper slowdown and, probably, a longer recession. Currently the BoE has overseen the economy sliding into a mild recession in order to bring inflation into line, but one with gratifyingly few job cuts. And, as the increased dovishness shows, the bank now thinks persistently low growth is a greater risk than inflation staying too high. 

The economy has some spare capacity and the FT’s interview with Governor Bailey suggests a lot of scope for the internal members to vote for a cut by May, since year-on-year inflation should slip below 2% in April.

Europe also has spare capacity and could cut rates at the same time. The European Central Bank met at the start of the month, held its operational framework meetings last week and, this week, spread its message at the “ECB Watchers” conference that “rate cuts are coming”. March purchasing manager survey data indicates that manufacturing has failed to sustain its slight bounce. The Eurozone manufacturing Purchasing Manufacturers Index (PMI), an indicator of business confidence, unexpectedly slid back to 45.7, as the chart below shows:

        

Services remain much stronger and jobs are not being cut noticeably but, as in the UK, inflationary behaviour is not evident, allowing inflation to decline. Switzerland also supported the idea of likely Eurozone rate cuts by unexpectedly cutting their short-term rate this week. The strong Swiss Franc is cited as the main reason, causing Swiss manufacturing to remain weak.

The Bank of Japan also delivered a dovish message. What is remarkable here is that they raised rates! We discuss this in one of the articles below (click the link for the full weekly).

China remains at the heart of global manufacturing weakness and a global disinflationary impetus.  The hopes of a swift rebound have been supported by a mild upswing in commodity and energy prices, but other indicators are less positive. The Australian manufacturing PMI (which is heavily focused on mining and materials, shown in the chart) has also slipped back to the lowest level since the 2020 pandemic dip. 

The Chinese offshore Renminbi fell in value this week, after a period of stabilisation. This has coincided with falling government bond yields and strong hints of more monetary policy action from the government.
Lastly, we turn to the most important central bank decision machine; the US Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee. Wednesday saw no change in rates, no change in the prepared statement, and Chairman Powell downplaying the recent uptick in inflation, saying, “It is still likely in most people’s view that we will achieve that confidence and there will be rate cuts.”

Commentators focused on the growing certainty of rate cuts, pointing out the fact that nine members expect three rate cuts in 2024, up from five in December, perhaps forgetting that the additional four had all expected more than three in December. 

We did not expect a less hawkish tone from the FOMC. Although, at the margin, the economic expectations were a bit higher and the doves were less dovish, there is a growing confidence that the US economy is in balance. Manufacturing is stronger than in the rest of the world but services confidence has eased amid signs of a jobs market that has become less ‘hot’. And, since import prices remain weak, the domestic economy can run a little stronger without causing a worrying resurgence in inflation.

So Jerome Powell can stick to the plan, just as the other central banks appear to be doing. However… 

The US economy has become stronger in the first weeks of this year, despite the stories of declining wage pressures. Unlike most other regions across the world, we think there is little spare capacity in the US, despite high levels of labour productivity (it may be that good productivity growth is because there are few available workers). US monetary policy is not restrictive in comparison to the current activity levels. The US may end 2024 in line with the Fed’s expectation of +2.1% real growth and inflation at 2.4%, but it will have to slow from current levels in order to do so. Current activity is rising rather than falling and now we estimate it to be at or above the 5.25%-5.5% Fed policy rate.

The central banks are rather revelling in a rare moment, when they can say they were right and everything is on track; economies are growing but not so much that inflation is going up (much), while jobs remain reasonably plentiful. They can say they saw it coming and they are going to stick to the plan.

Our caveat about policy is not a bearish one for markets either. If the Fed is a little lax, it should be good for profits in the near-term. We should only worry if inflation starts to move demonstrably higher and policy shifts from rate cuts to rate hikes. That’s not likely for some time. Easter holidays approach and, with only four work days until then, we hope to publish the Weekly on Thursday.

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9 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?