Latest news from Tatton Investment Management: Market fears fading

13 September 2024, 04:00pm

Capital markets picked themselves up this week. Global stocks are up, recovering well from a tough start to September. At the time of writing, not all of last week’s losses have been recovered, but markets seem to breathe a sigh of relief. This was particularly felt in the US, where stocks gained every day of the week at a remarkably consistent pace. We said before that the early September sell-off felt a little like the one that began at the height of summer – more about nerves than underlying outlook. This week’s steady recovery felt a little like what we saw for the rest of August, too. The August one eventually ran hot – probably a factor behind last week’s sell-off – but there thankfully are not signs of a repeat yet. 

The ECB cut rates but sounded hawkish.
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the second time this week by 25 basis points (0.25%) – the same as in June and in line with market expectations, taking Eurozone benchmark rates down to 3.5%. But ECB President Christine Lagarde downplayed the likelihood of another cut in October and noted: “A declining path is not pre-determined, … Neither in terms of sequence nor in terms of volume.” Markets considered this a surprisingly hawkish (preferring higher rates) message and the implied rate curve – mapping out where bond traders expect Eurozone rates to be over the next year – flattened slightly. 

We should not overinterpret Lagarde’s hawkishness; she said further cuts were likely, just not guaranteed. But there are clearly those inside and out of the ECB that think cutting too much too soon would be a mistake. On Wednesday, a former member of the ECB’s supervisory board wrote a Financial Times opinion piece arguing that the “ECB has no room to cut rates”. They noted the stickiness of services inflation (up to 4.2% in August from 4% in July) and the fact that the ECB’s 3.5% interest rate is already nearly 2 percentage points below US rates. 

The argument is that the ECB must follow its own path and not the one set by the US Federal Reserve – a line ECB policymakers have emphasised. But this misses the point somewhat. Markets expected a steep decline in Eurozone rates not because of what the Fed is doing, but because Europe’s economy is clearly in need of a boost. 

Former ECB president Mario Draghi stressed as much this week in his report to the European Commission. He called for a “new industrial strategy” and significant investment, to avoid European growth falling further behind the US and China. The structural weaknesses he notes are not the ECB’s fault, nor within the ECB’s power to truly resolve – but they arguably call for a more dovish approach than the bank is prepared to take. 

US markets in a better mood. 
By contrast, the Fed’s dovishness has set the scene nicely for US markets. The S&P 500 closed trading higher every day this week, and was buoyed by August’s inflation data. Headline inflation was 2.5%, below the expected 2.6%, but core prices (excluding volatile elements like food and energy) were higher than expected month-on-month. This suggests that disinflation is coming from input prices (much of it from China) while domestic demand remains strong. 

Interestingly, this kind of scenario probably would have unnerved markets a few months ago – suggesting persistent inflation and delayed rate cuts. But after a short sharp intraday blip,  investors thought it was good news. There have been fears recently that the US economy might be slowing too much, so markets now seem happy about signs of resilience. This goes hand in hand with a general sense that previous market fears are dissipating. Nvidia’s shares showed a very strong recovery this week – up more than 10% from last Friday at the time of writing – after the chipmaker’s CEO reassured investors of continued microchip demand. 

Stocks were not moved in either direction by the political highlight of the week, the US presidential debate – though Bitcoin weakened, which analysts have taken to be a bearish sign for Donald Trump’s chances, given his outspoken support for cryptocurrencies. The consensus view is that Vice President Kamala Harris came off better on the night, but probably not by enough to make her the clear favourite. This election has potentially enormous impacts for global assets, but there is too much uncertainty in this close race for markets to make a call on what those impacts will ultimately be.

All eyes on the Fed.
Attention now turns to the Fed’s meeting next week, where markets are fully expecting an interest rate cut of 25 basis points. Expectations of a 50 point cut have come down in response to Wednesday’s solid inflation figures, and it could even be a negative surprise for investors if the Fed did opt for a bigger cut. Markets want lower rates, but the economic data suggests 25 points is appropriate – so anything more could be interpreted as the Fed lacking confidence in the US economy.

Financial media frequently discusses how big particular cuts might be, but over the long-term they have relatively minor impacts. The trajectory and pace of interest rate changes are more important – and everyone agrees that the Fed will keep cutting rates. The central bank has been as clear as it can be that it wants to make policy more accommodative, and this will support both bonds and equities.

The Fed’s supportive stance still perplexes some, considering the US’ continued economic strength and, hence, lack of rate cut urgency compared to Europe. But as the Fed has communicated, inflation and (particularly) employment are at an inflection point – where things could quickly get worse if left unchecked. The problems at car finance firm Ally Financial – whose shares sunk 16% on Tuesday after its CEO warned of its borrowers struggling – highlight that there are pockets of the US economy where high interest rates are taking a toll. That is why the Fed will cut next week, and why its commentary will be crucial for how US and global markets fare. This also brings the potential of further market volatility, should officials decide to deviate from consensus expectations.

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New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home

28 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective

26 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear

24 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'

17 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine

10 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?

3 February 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week

27 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?

20 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018

14 January 2020, 12:00am

Appointment of Joint Broker

13 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good

8 January 2020, 12:00am

Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us

6 January 2020, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card

23 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!

16 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook

8 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?

2 December 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets

25 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check

18 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music

11 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat

11 November 2019, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019

4 November 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind

28 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning

21 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement

17 October 2019, 12:00am

Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)

14 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

7 October 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading

30 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength

23 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re

16 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound

9 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...

2 September 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'

27 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?

19 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets

11 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again

5 August 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady

29 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick

22 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly

15 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see

8 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs

1 July 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?

24 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’

17 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages

10 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Tenet Group

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Appointment by Frenkel Topping

3 June 2019, 12:00am

Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019

3 June 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings

27 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer

20 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?

13 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage

7 May 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations

29 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice

23 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?

16 April 2019, 12:00am

Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019

15 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving

8 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market

1 April 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end

25 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions

18 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces

11 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed

4 March 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay

25 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?

18 February 2019, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes

15 November 2018, 12:00am

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018

15 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off

1 October 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?

27 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new

7 September 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead

31 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the world”

24 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics

17 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost

10 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he

3 August 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?

27 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?

20 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?

13 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?

6 July 2018, 12:00am

Notice of Annual General Meeting

6 July 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot

29 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?

27 June 2018, 12:00am

Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018

22 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery

15 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises

8 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium

1 June 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril

25 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!

18 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?

11 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?

4 May 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?

27 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?

20 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better

6 April 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that

29 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter

23 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!

16 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?

9 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth

2 March 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits

23 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?

16 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment

9 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac

6 February 2018, 12:00am

Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment

2 February 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!

26 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises

19 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion

12 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells

5 January 2018, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off

15 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock

8 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin

5 December 2017, 12:00am

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017

1 December 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected

24 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?

17 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?

10 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets

3 November 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate

27 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season

13 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be

6 October 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news

29 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements

22 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft

15 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?

8 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes

1 September 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news

25 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?

18 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers

11 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?

4 August 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling

28 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’

21 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed

14 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check

7 July 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe

23 June 2017, 12:00am

New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?